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RGL Advanced S2 Happenings/Discussion
121
#121
0 Frags +

Playoff matches are out! Go decide the maps and schedule them! Keep in mind it is a best of 3 FULL maps, so be prepared for a long haul match. Challonge if you want to see a visual bracket

Playoff matches are out! Go decide the maps and schedule them! Keep in mind it is a best of 3 FULL maps, so be prepared for a long haul match. [url=https://challonge.com/RGLADVS2PLAYOFFS]Challonge[/url] if you want to see a visual bracket
122
#122
11 Frags +

https://i.imgur.com/0CAIesH.png

[img]https://i.imgur.com/0CAIesH.png[/img]
123
#123
2 Frags +

TFTV will be covering Goblin Zone vs. late stage TF2 so I've got my sights on #2 The Agency vs. #7 TNR. Though we could've had SpireIQ vs. Agency if it was a four team playoffs... Anyway, during the regular season these two teams met up week 2 on Gullywash (with the original TNR roster) where The Agency took a 5-3 win. Now with a late-season revamp on TNR's side, they hope to make an upset happen. The winner of this series will go on to face SpireIQ, so if Agency wins we'll still get that matchup in the same part of the bracket had it been a four team double elimination style bracket.

Match: https://rgl.gg/Public/Match.aspx?m=6047&r=40
Maps: Gullywash, Metalworks, Snakewater
Stream: twitch.tv/terywj

TFTV will be covering Goblin Zone vs. late stage TF2 so I've got my sights on #2 The Agency vs. #7 TNR. Though we could've had SpireIQ vs. Agency if it was a four team playoffs... Anyway, during the regular season these two teams met up week 2 on Gullywash (with the original TNR roster) where The Agency took a 5-3 win. Now with a late-season revamp on TNR's side, they hope to make an upset happen. The winner of this series will go on to face SpireIQ, so if Agency wins we'll still get that matchup in the same part of the bracket had it been a four team double elimination style bracket.

Match: https://rgl.gg/Public/Match.aspx?m=6047&r=40
Maps: Gullywash, Metalworks, Snakewater
Stream: twitch.tv/terywj
124
#124
0 Frags +

I'll be joining tery on the cast, just to shit talk exile

I'll be joining tery on the cast, just to shit talk exile
125
#125
17 Frags +

Big stats post here for playoffs matches:
I've been running a program that grabs scrim/match logs throughout the season and predicts the chance of teams taking rounds off one another for the purposes of match prediction.

The system is pretty simple, using all of a team's match/scrim history this season, it looks at the ratios of rounds won/lost of each team against one another and tries to determine a score that could be loosely interpreted as a 'skill level' for each team. If team A has score a and team B has score b then the chance of team A winning a round follows a logistic curve: 1/(1+e^(b-a)). To illustrate this, look at the following graph:

https://i.imgur.com/nDSFI6S.png

This allows you to get a sense of not only what the ranking of teams might look like, but also how much better than the other teams they are.

As of posting this, the team scores look something like this:

https://i.imgur.com/0wVcOvY.png

This would indicate that there is a fair gap between the top 3 teams and the other teams in advanced. This correlates relatively well with teams' positions in RGL, the team that I find most noticeably different is MySpectrumWiFi98-5G who seem pretty under rated by this metric. This might be because of underperformance in scrims, or because the team improved later into the season (something this isn't trying to evaluate).

Because this model is based on rounds, it can predict the outcomes of future games. However, there's a big problem with this as for whatever reason, under the RGL format it pretty much always expects games to go to winlimit. (This is because it's based on historical round duration, and I suspect because longer rounds tend to be cut off by going to timelimit).

In any case, here are predictions for tonights 3 games, which as I post this are probably near the end of the 1st half anyway (I'm a bit late to post this).

https://i.imgur.com/9C0iRwx.png

https://i.imgur.com/QaAeSS5.png

https://i.imgur.com/iXz84be.png

In theory these would be different for different maps, just because of the round durations, but because of the winlimit thing, it doesn't make much of a difference which map I choose. The chance of winning a round is probably different for different teams, but I don't know if I can easily estimate this, as the problem goes from having 16 dimensions to 121.

Big stats post here for playoffs matches:
I've been running a program that grabs scrim/match logs throughout the season and predicts the chance of teams taking rounds off one another for the purposes of match prediction.

The system is pretty simple, using all of a team's match/scrim history this season, it looks at the ratios of rounds won/lost of each team against one another and tries to determine a score that could be loosely interpreted as a 'skill level' for each team. If team A has score a and team B has score b then the chance of team A winning a round follows a logistic curve: 1/(1+e^(b-a)). To illustrate this, look at the following graph:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/nDSFI6S.png[/img]

This allows you to get a sense of not only what the ranking of teams might look like, but also how much better than the other teams they are.

As of posting this, the team scores look something like this:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/0wVcOvY.png[/img]

This would indicate that there is a fair gap between the top 3 teams and the other teams in advanced. This correlates relatively well with teams' positions in RGL, the team that I find most noticeably different is MySpectrumWiFi98-5G who seem pretty under rated by this metric. This might be because of underperformance in scrims, or because the team improved later into the season (something this isn't trying to evaluate).

Because this model is based on rounds, it can predict the outcomes of future games. However, there's a big problem with this as for whatever reason, under the RGL format it pretty much always expects games to go to winlimit. (This is because it's based on historical round duration, and I suspect because longer rounds tend to be cut off by going to timelimit).

In any case, here are predictions for tonights 3 games, which as I post this are probably near the end of the 1st half anyway (I'm a bit late to post this).

[img]https://i.imgur.com/9C0iRwx.png[/img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/QaAeSS5.png[/img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/iXz84be.png[/img]

In theory these would be different for different maps, just because of the round durations, but because of the winlimit thing, it doesn't make much of a difference which map I choose. The chance of winning a round is probably different for different teams, but I don't know if I can easily estimate this, as the problem goes from having 16 dimensions to 121.
126
#126
2 Frags +

https://imgur.com/a/zMdbQJa

gg Goblin zone

https://imgur.com/a/zMdbQJa

gg Goblin zone
127
#127
9 Frags +

https://i.gyazo.com/2a7036aa92b80508f6acf81042c3e686.png

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oL0YXzkx4sI

[img]https://i.gyazo.com/2a7036aa92b80508f6acf81042c3e686.png[/img]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oL0YXzkx4sI[/youtube]
128
#128
0 Frags +

the majority of the first round matches were close, is that evidence for 8 team playoffs rather than 4 team?

the majority of the first round matches were close, is that evidence for 8 team playoffs rather than 4 team?
129
#129
3 Frags +
dbkthe majority of the first round matches were close, is that evidence for 8 team playoffs rather than 4 team?

Daf's Ego Is Already The Size Of The Sun, Please Do Not Mention This To Him.

In other news, round 2 of playoffs is out! Unofficial challonge bracket for the viewing pleasure

[quote=dbk]the majority of the first round matches were close, is that evidence for 8 team playoffs rather than 4 team?[/quote]

Daf's Ego Is Already The Size Of The Sun, Please Do Not Mention This To Him.

In other news, round 2 of playoffs is out! Unofficial [url=https://challonge.com/RGLADVS2PLAYOFFS]challonge[/url] bracket for the viewing pleasure
130
#130
5 Frags +

https://i.imgur.com/p4Kz7PI.gif

[img]https://i.imgur.com/p4Kz7PI.gif[/img]
131
#131
2 Frags +

I’m going to be casting one of the semifinal matches tomorrow, let me know which one you’d like to see.

https://strawpoll.com/6c6gw126

I’m going to be casting one of the semifinal matches tomorrow, let me know which one you’d like to see.

https://strawpoll.com/6c6gw126
132
#132
-2 Frags +
Unicorn_WizardI’m going to be casting one of the semifinal matches tomorrow, let me know which one you’d like to see.

https://strawpoll.com/6c6gw126

do you plan on casting with tery

[quote=Unicorn_Wizard]I’m going to be casting one of the semifinal matches tomorrow, let me know which one you’d like to see.

https://strawpoll.com/6c6gw126[/quote]
do you plan on casting with tery
133
#133
1 Frags +
loafedo you plan on casting with tery

As Invite and Advanced are all happening tomorrow, I will likely grab whichever Advanced game Uni isn't. The more coverage the better.

[quote=loafe]do you plan on casting with tery[/quote]

As Invite and Advanced are all happening tomorrow, I will likely grab whichever Advanced game Uni isn't. The more coverage the better.
134
#134
4 Frags +

Alright, based on results, I will be casting Agency vs SpireIQ tonight at 10:30 EST. The battle of circlejerks heats up in a best of 3 on Clearcut, Process, with a decider of Metalworks. Hopefully we'll be in for a long, fun night of TF2!

https://www.twitch.tv/uni_wizard

Alright, based on results, I will be casting Agency vs SpireIQ tonight at 10:30 EST. The battle of circlejerks heats up in a best of 3 on Clearcut, Process, with a decider of Metalworks. Hopefully we'll be in for a long, fun night of TF2!

https://www.twitch.tv/uni_wizard
135
#135
2 Frags +

And across the pond, I'll provide coverage for #1 seed Happy Kronge Bois vs. #4 seed Goblin Zone in the semifinal round, with the winner punching their ticket into grand finals. The only loss Kronge Bois had during the regular season was coincidentally at the hands of The Goblin Zone way back during week two, in a 5-4 Gullywash thriller. Similarly, Goblin Zone lost to SpireIQ and The Agency, the other top teams in the division. During first round, Happy Kronge Bois dispatched Bystander Effect with ease. Meanwhile, The Goblin Zone had a crazy close set with late stage TF2 that went the full three map distance. Either way, we should be in for a good set.

Match: https://rgl.gg/Public/Match.aspx?m=6120&r=40
Maps: Process, Metalworks, Granary.
Stream: twitch.tv/terywj

And across the pond, I'll provide coverage for #1 seed Happy Kronge Bois vs. #4 seed Goblin Zone in the semifinal round, with the winner punching their ticket into grand finals. The only loss Kronge Bois had during the regular season was coincidentally at the hands of The Goblin Zone way back during week two, in a 5-4 Gullywash thriller. Similarly, Goblin Zone lost to SpireIQ and The Agency, the other top teams in the division. During first round, Happy Kronge Bois dispatched Bystander Effect with ease. Meanwhile, The Goblin Zone had a crazy close set with late stage TF2 that went the full three map distance. Either way, we should be in for a good set.

Match: https://rgl.gg/Public/Match.aspx?m=6120&r=40
Maps: Process, Metalworks, Granary.
Stream: twitch.tv/terywj
136
#136
4 Frags +
Tery_And across the pond, I'll provide coverage for #1 seed Happy Kronge Bois vs. #4 seed Goblin Zone in the semifinal round, with the winner punching their ticket into grand finals. The only loss Kronge Bois had during the regular season was coincidentally at the hands of The Goblin Zone way back during week two, in a 5-4 Gullywash thriller. Similarly, Goblin Zone lost to SpireIQ and The Agency, the other top teams in the division. During first round, Happy Kronge Bois dispatched Bystander Effect with ease. Meanwhile, The Goblin Zone had a crazy close set with late stage TF2 that went the full three map distance. Either way, we should be in for a good set.

Match: https://rgl.gg/Public/Match.aspx?m=6120&r=40
Maps: Process, Metalworks, Granary.
Stream: twitch.tv/terywj

https://i.ibb.co/qN4cDQz/mDp7eYT.jpg

[quote=Tery_]And across the pond, I'll provide coverage for #1 seed Happy Kronge Bois vs. #4 seed Goblin Zone in the semifinal round, with the winner punching their ticket into grand finals. The only loss Kronge Bois had during the regular season was coincidentally at the hands of The Goblin Zone way back during week two, in a 5-4 Gullywash thriller. Similarly, Goblin Zone lost to SpireIQ and The Agency, the other top teams in the division. During first round, Happy Kronge Bois dispatched Bystander Effect with ease. Meanwhile, The Goblin Zone had a crazy close set with late stage TF2 that went the full three map distance. Either way, we should be in for a good set.

Match: https://rgl.gg/Public/Match.aspx?m=6120&r=40
Maps: Process, Metalworks, Granary.
Stream: twitch.tv/terywj[/quote]
[img]https://i.ibb.co/qN4cDQz/mDp7eYT.jpg[/img]
137
#137
4 Frags +

Updated team scores (unlikely to change much this far into the season):

https://i.imgur.com/eSLUT2X.png

Predictions for Agency vs SpireIQ:

https://i.imgur.com/72XvfTV.png

Koth:

https://i.imgur.com/YVCMPAW.png

Predictions for Happy Kronge Bois vs Goblin Zone:

https://i.imgur.com/CEJJOsF.png

Updated team scores (unlikely to change much this far into the season):
[img]https://i.imgur.com/eSLUT2X.png[/img]

Predictions for Agency vs SpireIQ:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/72XvfTV.png[/img]

Koth:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/YVCMPAW.png[/img]

Predictions for Happy Kronge Bois vs Goblin Zone:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/CEJJOsF.png[/img]
138
#138
2 Frags +

And with that we have our grand finalists! Match is scheduled, go do your map bans! Also the post season survey is out! Have a map you didn't like, like granary? Vote it out! Didn't like the point system, like granary? Vote it out! Unofficial challonge bracket for viewing pleasure

And with that we have our grand finalists! Match is scheduled, go do your map bans! Also the [url=https://rgl.gg/players/my/survey.aspx?s=19]post season survey[/url] is out! Have a map you didn't like, like granary? Vote it out! Didn't like the point system, like granary? Vote it out! [url=https://challonge.com/RGLADVS2PLAYOFFS]Unofficial challonge bracket for viewing pleasure[/url]
139
#139
3 Frags +

Well apparently the 3rd place match is a thing and happening tonight at 10:30 so I’m gonna be casting that as well!

Well apparently the 3rd place match is a thing and happening tonight at 10:30 so I’m gonna be casting that as well!
140
#140
22 Frags +

https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/1021695228662321139/5809251ADF6EA18E10A5A5BBE12A1D7D87CCD319/

Wednesday, April 1st, 2020 10:30 PM EDT

[img]https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/1021695228662321139/5809251ADF6EA18E10A5A5BBE12A1D7D87CCD319/[/img] Wednesday, April 1st, 2020 10:30 PM EDT
141
#141
-8 Frags +

$20 says the april fools joke of the match is going to be the n word

$20 says the april fools joke of the match is going to be the n word
142
#142
14 Frags +

https://i.imgur.com/S19xl3y.png

[img]https://i.imgur.com/S19xl3y.png[/img]
143
#143
-18 Frags +

RGL thank you for banning me for 3 months for using the sniper scope in a scrim despite removing it for every match I played. Even when I played a total of 38 seconds of sniper the entire season of Advanced.

I am sorry for the 25 seconds of sniper I played with the removal script in a scrim. I hope the TF2 community can forgive me as I've learned my lesson.

Show Content
RGL does not tolerate cheating in TF2 in any form. If RGL receives evidence (demos, server or anti-cheat software logs, etc) of someone cheating anywhere in TF2 (including public servers, scrims and PUGs (Pick-Up Games)), that person will be subject to league penalties.

Shouldve read the RGL textbook
RGL thank you for banning me for 3 months for using the sniper scope in a scrim despite removing it for every match I played. Even when I played a total of [url=https://i.imgur.com/WWkae5L.png]38 seconds[/url] of sniper the entire season of Advanced.


I am sorry for the [url=https://www.twitch.tv/yerbb1/clip/FurtiveCreativeFriesAsianGlow?filter=clips&range=7d&sort=time]25 seconds[/url] of sniper I played with the removal script in a scrim. I hope the TF2 community can forgive me as I've learned my lesson.

[spoiler]RGL does not tolerate cheating in TF2 in any form. If RGL receives evidence (demos, server or anti-cheat software logs, etc) of someone cheating anywhere in TF2 (including public servers, scrims and PUGs (Pick-Up Games)), that person will be subject to league penalties.

Shouldve read the RGL textbook
[/spoiler]
144
#144
2 Frags +
yerb
I am sorry for the 25 seconds of sniper I played with the removal script in a scrim. I hope the TF2 community can forgive me as I've learned my lesson.

We can not. You are dead to our community. How dare you.

[quote=yerb]


I am sorry for the [url=https://www.twitch.tv/yerbb1/clip/FurtiveCreativeFriesAsianGlow?filter=clips&range=7d&sort=time]25 seconds[/url] of sniper I played with the removal script in a scrim. I hope the TF2 community can forgive me as I've learned my lesson.
[/quote]

We can not. You are dead to our community. How dare you.
145
#145
3 Frags +

I’m assuming RGL or tftv will be casting it. But if they don’t, I’ll be casting the grand finals tomorrow.

I’m assuming RGL or tftv will be casting it. But if they don’t, I’ll be casting the grand finals tomorrow.
146
#146
9 Frags +

The year is 2020. Scratch has won advanced 6s. Perfection and Akemi are in invite highlander playoffs. B4nny has been living on a friendly discount under tyrone's roof for years now, being the only person to ever successfully live off tf2. He now questions his life career choices seeing these up and comers coming for his throne.

The year is 2020. Scratch has won advanced 6s. Perfection and Akemi are in invite highlander playoffs. B4nny has been living on a friendly discount under tyrone's roof for years now, being the only person to ever successfully live off tf2. He now questions his life career choices seeing these up and comers coming for his throne.
147
#147
10 Frags +

The year is 2020. Scratch has won advanced 6s. Perfection and Akemi are in invite highlander playoffs. B4nny has been living on a friendly discount under tyrone's roof for years now, being the only person to ever successfully live off tf2. He now questions his life career choices seeing these up and comers coming for his throne.

The year is 2020. Scratch has won advanced 6s. Perfection and Akemi are in invite highlander playoffs. B4nny has been living on a friendly discount under tyrone's roof for years now, being the only person to ever successfully live off tf2. He now questions his life career choices seeing these up and comers coming for his throne.
148
#148
-26 Frags +

The year is 2020. Scratch has won advanced 6s. Perfection and Akemi are in invite highlander playoffs. B4nny has been living on a friendly discount under tyrone's roof for years now, being the only person to ever successfully live off tf2. He now questions his life career choices seeing these up and comers coming for his throne.

The year is 2020. Scratch has won advanced 6s. Perfection and Akemi are in invite highlander playoffs. B4nny has been living on a friendly discount under tyrone's roof for years now, being the only person to ever successfully live off tf2. He now questions his life career choices seeing these up and comers coming for his throne.
149
#149
7 Frags +

stfu

stfu
150
#150
11 Frags +

gxq did it for the vine

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/387764227965976579/695125866958684250/ETM8edpWsAAhfHp.png

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/387764227965976579/695125892019781652/IMG_20200330_004208.jpg

gxq did it for the vine
[img]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/387764227965976579/695125866958684250/ETM8edpWsAAhfHp.png[/img]
[img]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/387764227965976579/695125892019781652/IMG_20200330_004208.jpg[/img]
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