If the admins go by Rounds Won, then Disney Jam Thursday makes playoffs if NAB wins tonight without dropping 3 rounds. Open winners still decide their own fate, if they win they make it but if they lose 4-3, they will still make it off Rounds Won.

There is an extremely high chance that I would but an even higher chance I would be looking for the mute button afterwards.

I am sure an ESEA Admin or some smart person out there can explain. As I review the statistics, I do not know why Head-to-Head is above Rounds Won in the seeding rules. I believe this tie-break formula causes more problems than solutions and is a broken way to determine seeding for TF2.

This may work in CS because of the large amount of teams in each division but with TF2’s smaller divisions a different tie-break order is necessary. As some have mentioned, the current rules regarding tie-breakers and seeding are:

Overall record then by
Head to head record then by
Highest amount of regulation rounds won
Single map playoff if all other tie breaker scenarios are indecisive

Having Head-to-Head above Rounds Won can cause a gridlock between multiple teams. Team’s A, B, C and D can have tied records but qualify and disqualify each other based off head-to-head results. Logic would say to look at Rounds Won at that point but how can you use the secondary tie-breaker unless you satisfy the primary tie-breaker first? The current situation for the 16th open playoff seed is a prime example of this rule breakdown.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The last remaining match result to determine the Open Division 16th seed is Not Around Bears vs open winners. Let me preface this by saying if open winners defeat NAB, they will automatically qualify for playoffs and all of this is academic. However, if NAB wins the match, the situation is more puzzling to me as 4 teams will be tied with a 9-7 record. The tie-breakers do not lineup perfectly for any team to have a clear advantage over the other 3 teams so who would get the spot?

Should NAB win, here is what I see:

Not Around Bears – 9-7 (49)
Do qualify – H2H win over open winners
Do qualify – Missing H2H with yack me off but have more Rounds Won 49 to 41
Do not qualify – missing H2H with Disney Jam, thus Rounds Won for Disney Jam (51) disqualify NAB (49)

open winners – 9-7 (52)
Do qualify – H2H win over Disney Jam
Do qualify – Missing H2H with yack me off but have more Rounds Won 52+ to 41
Do not qualify – H2H loss to NAB

Disney Jam Thursday – 9-7 (51)
Do not qualify – H2H loss to yack me off
Do not qualify – H2H loss to open winners
Do qualify – Rounds Won (51) over NAB (49) because of missing H2H match

yack me off – 9-7 (41)
Do qualify -- H2H win over Disney Jam
Do not qualify – Missing H2H with NAB, thus Rounds Won for NAB (49) disqualify yack me off (41)
Do not qualify – Missing H2H with open winners, thus Rounds Won for open winners (52) disqualify yack me off (41)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Should the above 4 teams finish the season 9-7, you can see the reason why each of those 4 teams can defeat each other in every qualifying scenario. There is no single team that, according to the rules, has a claim to the final spot. In my mind, the only way for a team to advance is being able to satisfy each tie-breaker with every other team. Even 1 exception is not good enough according to the rules.

Unless I am missing a major piece of the puzzle, I do not understand how the current rule-set can justify any of those teams getting the 16th seed should NAB defeat open winners. This doesn't just apply to who get this single spot but I also believe it can effect the seeding for the brackets in every division.

Think I got a few right, Mutual Consent screwed a lot of shit up but that's ok. :) Nice win

I don't think so, I believe it starts with Rounds Won and then goes to head-to-head if rounds are tied

Damn, if u guys are able to play that match it will likely change of a lot of stuff

rofl, I would like to take credit for being that slick :)

Projected Playoff Rankings after Viaduct Week

1. Weiner Bros ------------------------- 15-1 (70)
   
2. Ed Head ------------------------------- 15-1 (69)
   
3. Elite Pwnage Squad ------------- 14-2 (72)
   
4. Puck Fat ------------------------------- 14-2 (65)
   
5. BLANC Esports -------------------- 12-4 (60)
   
6. Pwr Rangers ------------------------ 12-4 (58)
   
7. Mutual Consent -------------------- 12-4 (58)
   
8. rip john wayne kayc ------------- 12-4 (54)
   
9. Blue Elephant ---------------------- 11-5 (60)
   
10. 2 in Flank 4 in Stank ------------ 11-5 (58)
    
11. but i just bought weed --------- 11-5 (55)
    
12. smug drugglers ------------------- 11-5 (52)
    
13. yack me off -------------------------- 11-5 (45)
    
14. Koala Washing Machines ---- 10-6 (44)
    
15. Team Inertia ------------------------ 10-6 (41)
    
16. open winners ----------------------- 9-7 (51)

yack me off
Playoff Chances: 50/50
This team has been a puzzle to me all season long. Looking at the paid players should indicate a very scary team to play but they have just not shown up for any match against good competition. 5 of their 9 wins are FFW's and aside a 4-2 win over smug druggers, that have not a single notable match.

They currently sit with 37 Rounds Won. That total is low and is not helping their chances. Matches this week are against "but i just bought weed" and "Spider2 Y Banana". Both teams that are also hungry and fighting for the final playoff spots so these wins should not come easily. That said, I do believe if yack me off plays to potential, they should win both matches and roll into the playoffs with 11 wins. Even with 10 wins they will likely make the playoffs but they still need to win a match this week because a 9-7 record will depend on Rounds Won and they are low.

open winners
Playoff Chances: 50/50
A team like this comes along almost every single season. They start 2-5 then get matched up against low/mid open teams the rest of the season and rip off 6 straight wins and potentially bump better teams down the ladder. I blame bad ESEA scheduling but lets move past that.

This week will give them another free win against whip it OUT (DEAD) and leave them at 9-6 going into the final match vs Not Around Bears. NAB cannot make the playoffs but they can possibly play spoiler in this matchup.

The worst open winners can finish is 9-7 with 49 Rounds Won. This is a high round total and might be enough in itself to qualify for the 15th or 16th seed even if they lose to NAB. If they win and go 10-6, they can seed as high as 12th. This match against NAB is going to be a very close and easily another MOTW Candidate.

WaddleSquad
Playoff Chances: Low
I have no idea what happened to WaddleSquad, maybe someone can explain? 1 week ago they were sitting pretty at 7-4 then a very surprising loss to Low Open-Now-Dead team Party Hotline. This was quickly followed by a FFL to Hot Diggity Dog, a team they should have beaten to secure the 9th win.

If Waddle Squad even plays this week, they face smug druggers and Disney Jam Thursday. Neither match will be easy but the big match is against Disney Jam Thursday because both teams need this victory to have any hope of playoffs. MOTW Candidate.

Despite everything, WaddleSquad commands their own fate. With 2 victories, they will qualify for playoffs with a 10-6 record. If they go 1-1 this week, it will mean a 9-7 record and come down to Rounds Won.

Team Inertia
Playoff Chances: 50/50
Literally a team that has hung on by their fingernails through the middle of the season. They do not possess a single solid victory against quality competition and this will continue into the final week.

Viaduct matches against Hot Diggity Dog and We Love Randal should, in my mind, outline a solid road to playoffs with a 10-6 record. I believe they will need to win both of these matches because with a single loss they may not have enough rounds to make the final playoff spots.

Disney Jam Thursday
Playoff Chances: 50/50
This team has actually had a pretty decent season all things considered. They took rounds off some of the top teams in the division and have beaten the teams they were expected to beat.

They have a match on Badlands to finish but I expect a solid victory giving them a 8-6 record going into Viaduct week. Viaduct matches against Daves Dangerous Dudes and WaddleSquad, in particular, are going to have huge implications on the bottom playoff standings.

With 44 rounds won, they hold a solid chance of qualifying for 15th or 16th place if they can get 2 wins in the final 3 matches. Should they run off 3 wins, they could possibly have a seed as high as 12th.

Hot Diggity Dog
Playoff Chances: Low
I am really not sure how this team has a mathematical chance of playoffs. They have 4 losses in the last 5 matches but were given a complete gift FFW from WaddleSquad that I cannot currently understand.

3 matches remain for this team and I can honestly say they have a chance to outright win against Daves Dangerous Dudes and The Pizzagon Thin Crust. The 3rd match against Team Inertia will be the hardest of them all and likely a loss that will knock this team out for good. However, if they run the table with 3 straight wins, they will make the playoffs with a 10-6 record. If they finish at 9-7, they do not have enough rounds to contend.

but I just bought weed
Playoff Chances: Very High
This team has been more of a surprise than any other in open so far. While they don’t have any wins over the top teams in the division, they have played solid competition for most of the season and done very well. Wins over Koala Washing Machine and John Wayne highlight the season thus far.

Missing a match on Granary could net a free FFW and automatically qualify with 11 victories. They will incur a loss against Ed Head but a potential big matchup against yack me off will likely determine playoff seeding for both teams. Even if the worst happens and they lose all 3 matches and end up 10-6, they have 48+ rounds and that will push them through.

smug drugglers
Playoff Chances: High
smug has had a quiet season for the most part including a very slow start. The second half of the season has been a different story and they have run off 6 straight wins (3 FFW) during this playoff push. Wins over whip it OUT, Spider2 Y Banana and Not Around Bears were great wins for this team.

Right now they sit with 46 rounds and should they lose out will be 10-6. Technically, that could end up being good enough to secure a spot. They hold fate in their own hands this week. I am going to predict a loss against rip john wayne but the 2nd match vs WaddleSquad is the one to watch as the winner may qualify and see the loser knocked out. Easy MOTW candidate.

Koala Washing Machines
Playoff Chances: Extremely High
YouMustMike and Co. have frankly not had as good a season as their record indicates. This week will secure the 5th FFW of the season for this team and they do not have a single notable victory to their name.

This week against Blue Elephant on Viaduct will be very difficult and I see a victory as highly unlikely. If Koala happen to win, they will automatically qualify for playoffs with 11 wins. More likely is that they will finish 10-6 and qualify with the FFW and Rounds won.

rip john wayne kayc
Playoff Chances: Extremely High
Another team getting their 5th FFW this week and secure a 10th win for the season. The big difference between john wayne and Koala is that john wayne has actually performed very well against some of the top teams. Matches against EPS, Weiner Bros and Pwr Rangers were competitive.

There is a missing Sunshine match on the schedule for this team and if they are lucky another FFW to make playoffs! If not they will likely get a mid/low open team and destroy them but the match vs smug druggers should at least be interesting.

I have very little doubt this team will make the playoffs but with current records they have not clinched yet.

Spider2 Y Banana
Playoff Chances: Low
s2yb had a slow start and they are paying the price for that right now as they lack the wins to qualify and the Rounds Won to contend with other teams that may finish 9-7. Last week saw a heartbreaking 4-3 loss on Badlands to smug druggers that I watched on STV. That single loss kicked a lot of the playoff chances out from under this team but hope remains.

Matches on Viaduct this week are against Pwr Rangers and yack me off. Both will be difficult wins to get but I do believe both are winnable should this team come together properly. Either way, s2yb need just 1 victory and they will make the playoffs, anything less is not going to work.

I meant to do power rankings for the past 2 weeks but never found the time. The update ruined matches schedules for metalworks, plus I had my own updates for my Invite Database.

In the last few weeks I have read a lot of the negative comments about open this season being "weak" and to that I have to personally disagree. In my opinion, a strong division is defined with many teams that are of equal skill level that can beat each other on any given night. I believe that is what we have this season of open and it is more competitive this season as compared to many in the past. This playoff series is really a wipe open field with several contenders. I look forward to the matches ahead, GL to all teams.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With Badlands week over, Viaduct is going to be critical for many teams hoping to qualify for playoffs. There are 9 teams that have already punched their ticket for playoffs regardless of the Viaduct matches. I want to focus more on the bubble teams and the head to head matches that will determine who gets knocked out.

9 teams have mathematically qualified for playoffs (assuming 16 teams) :

Elite Pwnage Squad
Ed Head
Weiner Bros
Puck Fat
Mutual Consent
BLANC Esports
2 in Flank 4 in Stank
Blue Elephant
Pwr Rangers (Wins) - Expecting FFW

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With 9 spots locked up, that leaves 7 spots remaining and I see 11 teams fighting for a berth. Some of these teams have what I consider a high % chance of qualifying while others have a very low chance depending on who they are matched up against. Lets take a look at some of these teams and at the end I will post my Projected Final Standings and see how well my crystal ball works.

In a strange way this is not far from the truth at all. In the early/mid 90's I ran my own 1v1 tournament in the original Quakeworld TF. I still have the files from that tournament and it has the same look and feel of this database webpage. I never learned anything else so this is all I ever knew.

I am kinda interest in the math you did from the data I posted? The only way you can get accurate win/loss data from all players is if you clicked each players individual profile and started adding from there. Did you do something else?

The only accurate tally of win/losses as a whole for the 353 players is my Excel spread sheet and nobody has access to that.

alec, you are now uploaded

I also changed the "Active Player" color from Pink to White. Hopefully that is a little better for now.

Season 7 -- 4-2 win sweater never forget
Season 12 -- 5-0 win mixup
Season 12 -- 5-2 win mixup

Maybe you thought of scrims?