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ETF2L S33 W7: top5rocket vs. Ora Elektro
posted in Matches
ETA
Completed
DATE
Tuesday, Jul 16th
TIME
3:15 PM EDT
STREAM
Yohn
ABOUT

The last playoff spot will be decided tonight, with only a single point separating top5, Ora and War & Sons. While the somewhat-Germans will be facing the 8th seed, Ora and top5 will clash in a likely extremely even matchup, with the added tension that a draw does not help either of them if War wins. With the high-paced Prolands making its debut tonight as well, expect some high-stakes action !

Despite Ascent.EU losing a map to War&Sons, their power rose quickly, and Ora Elektro was dispatched by them in a crushing fashion, only picking up a single round between the two maps. All hope is not lost however, as Ora proved their worth against less aggressive, more methodical teams and the frenchies are definitely less carefree than their previous opponents.

Top5rocket on the other hand will be riding the high of their victory against goonsquad. An expected victory, but the goons have shown to be treacherous before, notably tying with Ora Elektro and winning the full 6 points against them surely put Ombrack’s outfit in the right mood. Snakewater also looks promising, with the soldier pair of top5 able to wreak havoc on mids.

Play-by-play: Yohn | Analysis: bum | Production: Phong | Match Page | top5rocket | Ora Elektro | Writer: Aelkyr
MAP 1
cp_snakewater_final1
MAP 2
cp_prolands_rc2t
top5rocket ? Ora Elektro 0 - 0
Players CL DPM DMG K A D HR% HR CPC MP UC UCD
top5 Ombrack 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
top5 Elacour 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
top5 Corbac 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
top5 Opti 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
top5 Néo 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
top5 dmoule 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
Players CL DPM DMG K A D HR% HR CPC MP UC UCD
ORA ⚡️ Demos 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ORA ⚡️ Eemes 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
ORA ⚡️ Azunis 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
ORA ⚡️ Poison 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
ORA ⚡️ Nevo 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
ORA ⚡️ YeeHaw 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
top5rocket ? Ora Elektro 0 - 0
Players CL DPM DMG K A D HR% HR CPC MP UC UCD
top5 Ombrack 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
top5 Elacour 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
top5 Corbac 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
top5 Opti 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
top5 Néo 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
top5 dmoule 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
Players CL DPM DMG K A D HR% HR CPC MP UC UCD
ORA ⚡️ Demos 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ORA ⚡️ Eemes 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
ORA ⚡️ Azunis 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
ORA ⚡️ Poison 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
ORA ⚡️ Nevo 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
ORA ⚡️ YeeHaw 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0
1
#1
0 Frags +

playoffs deciding match Pog

playoffs deciding match Pog
2
#2
11 Frags +

plot twist they trade points and ever_x makes playoffs

plot twist they trade points and ever_x makes playoffs
3
#3
8 Frags +

and the other playoff deciding match (War & Sons vs Generation karnax) would be played at the same time.
Out of 49 possible results to both matches, 22 say top5rocket go to playoffs, 15 say Ora Elektro go to playoffs, 6 say War & Sons would advance, 3 present a tiebreaker between War and top5 for which every scenario results with War having a higher tiebreaker score, and another 3 present a tiebreaker between War and Ora which is much closer and heavily influenced by the 2 other matches.

If both matches are 6-0 for ORA and War:

Show Content
Let's assume Faint 6-0's Ascent and Se7en 6-0's Goonsquad, the tie scores would be about 6.30952 for ORA and about 6.13888889 for War, for every point ascent takes from Faint, this gap would close by about 0.130952, and for every point Goonsquad takes from 7, the gap would close by about 0.06746, meaning War would need Ascent to take 2 points, or for them to take 1 point and for Goonsquad to take another, or for Goonsquad to take at least three points by themselves.

If both matches are 5-1 for ORA and War:

Show Content
Same assumptions, everything is the same but War's "original" tie score is about 6.19444444, and ORA's is about 5.47619 , meaning War would win this tiebreaker regardless of the other matches.

If both matches are 4-2 for ORA and War:

Show Content
Same assumptions, we can see a similar trend with the updated "original" tiebreaker scores, meaning War would win this tiebreaker regardless of the other matches.

tl;dr There are 49 possible outcomes of these 2 matches, in 22 of them top5rocket get to advance their trenches another inch, in 15 of them Ora Elektro shocks the crowd and go into playoffs, in 11 of them War & Sons keep waging further S33, and the last possibility splits into another 49 and out of them 4 hold Ora Elektro's last spark of hope while the rest give War & Sons more supplies to keep going.
How many did we win? One.
(i might miscalculated something and this probably doesn't matter as it seems Ascent woke up since week 1 and won't lose to anyone that isn't Faint or Se7en)
(why did I even put a tl;dr it doesn't even shorten anything)

EDIT: if every possibility has an equal chance of occuring then top5rocket have a 44.9% chance to reach playoffs, Ora Elektro have a 30.8% chance, and War & Sons have a 24.3% chance to reach it

2nd EDIT: Here's a chart to help visualize what are the possibilities; https://imgur.com/HTc6EHJ

3rd EDIT: War & Sons get an even better tiebreaker score because I forgot to add Ascent's score 6 from last week's match, sorry for miss leading, that one possibility is also a WAR win.

and the other playoff deciding match (War & Sons vs Generation karnax) would be played at the same time.
Out of 49 possible results to both matches, 22 say top5rocket go to playoffs, 15 say Ora Elektro go to playoffs, 6 say War & Sons would advance, 3 present a tiebreaker between War and top5 for which every scenario results with War having a higher tiebreaker score, and another 3 present a tiebreaker between War and Ora which is much closer and heavily influenced by the 2 other matches.

If both matches are 6-0 for ORA and War:[spoiler] Let's assume Faint 6-0's Ascent and Se7en 6-0's Goonsquad, the tie scores would be about 6.30952 for ORA and about 6.13888889 for War, for every point ascent takes from Faint, this gap would close by about 0.130952, and for every point Goonsquad takes from 7, the gap would close by about 0.06746, meaning War would need Ascent to take 2 points, or for them to take 1 point and for Goonsquad to take another, or for Goonsquad to take at least three points by themselves.[/spoiler]

If both matches are 5-1 for ORA and War:[spoiler] Same assumptions, everything is the same but War's "original" tie score is about 6.19444444, and ORA's is about 5.47619 , meaning War would win this tiebreaker regardless of the other matches.[/spoiler]

If both matches are 4-2 for ORA and War:[spoiler] Same assumptions, we can see a similar trend with the updated "original" tiebreaker scores, meaning War would win this tiebreaker regardless of the other matches.[/spoiler]

tl;dr There are 49 possible outcomes of these 2 matches, in 22 of them top5rocket get to advance their trenches another inch, in 15 of them Ora Elektro shocks the crowd and go into playoffs, in 11 of them War & Sons keep waging further S33, and the last possibility splits into another 49 and out of them 4 hold Ora Elektro's last spark of hope while the rest give War & Sons more supplies to keep going.
How many did we win? One.
(i might miscalculated something and this probably doesn't matter as it seems Ascent woke up since week 1 and won't lose to anyone that isn't Faint or Se7en)
(why did I even put a tl;dr it doesn't even shorten anything)

EDIT: if every possibility has an equal chance of occuring then top5rocket have a 44.9% chance to reach playoffs, Ora Elektro have a 30.8% chance, and War & Sons have a 24.3% chance to reach it

2nd EDIT: Here's a chart to help visualize what are the possibilities; https://imgur.com/HTc6EHJ

3rd EDIT: War & Sons get an even better tiebreaker score because I forgot to add Ascent's score 6 from last week's match, sorry for miss leading, that one possibility is also a WAR win.
4
#4
5 Frags +

bro can i get a tldr for your tldr

bro can i get a tldr for your tldr
5
#5
15 Frags +

https://i.imgur.com/qMz6bsx.jpg

[img]https://i.imgur.com/qMz6bsx.jpg[/img]
6
#6
24 Frags +
coyo_geezerbro can i get a tldr for your tldr

https://i.imgur.com/G1NB1wq.png

[quote=coyo_geezer]bro can i get a tldr for your tldr[/quote]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/G1NB1wq.png[/img]
7
#7
21 Frags +

https://youtu.be/_Kpv8Ul39NQ

https://youtu.be/_Kpv8Ul39NQ
8
#8
-11 Frags +
Asi_Pasasiload of pure fucking shite

all you had to say was if they tie and war and sons 6-0 then war and sons are in playoffs

[quote=Asi_Pasasi]load of pure fucking shite[/quote]
all you had to say was if they tie and war and sons 6-0 then war and sons are in playoffs
9
#9
2 Frags +

looks like production cant make it and we wont have a backup tonight so no official cast for this, gonna see if we can throw together some ghetto cast for people to watch atleast

looks like production cant make it and we wont have a backup tonight so no official cast for this, gonna see if we can throw together some ghetto cast for people to watch atleast
10
#10
10 Frags +

Myself and DuMmTm will stream and cast the game tonight! Don’t miss it at twitch.tv/yohn__ :)

Myself and DuMmTm will stream and cast the game tonight! Don’t miss it at twitch.tv/yohn__ :)
11
#11
1 Frags +
DuMmTmlooks like production cant make it and we wont have a backup tonight so no official cast for this, gonna see if we can throw together some ghetto cast for people to watch atleast

PepeHands

[quote=DuMmTm]looks like production cant make it and we wont have a backup tonight so no official cast for this, gonna see if we can throw together some ghetto cast for people to watch atleast[/quote]
PepeHands
12
#12
4 Frags +

if anyone cares here's an updated chart https://imgur.com/doYbBCF

This is the final one, unless I miscalculated or admins decide to leave this up to a tie match instead, War & Sons progress to playoffs

if anyone cares here's an updated chart https://imgur.com/doYbBCF

This is the final one, unless I miscalculated or admins decide to leave this up to a tie match instead, War & Sons progress to playoffs
13
#13
4 Frags +

gg ez

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/485/098/245.gif

gg ez

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/485/098/245.gif
14
#14
3 Frags +

https://i.imgur.com/lpukVY7.png

[img]https://i.imgur.com/lpukVY7.png[/img]
15
#15
16 Frags +

me walking to 5th place like

https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/029/223/cover2.jpg

me walking to 5th place like
[img]https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/029/223/cover2.jpg[/img]
16
#16
3 Frags +
Asi_Pasasi ...

Se7en 6-0s goons and War tied with Ascent, so Ora's TB score increases if Ascent doesn't get points against Faint. Taking 0-6 gets Ora 43 and War just over 40. Did you divide War's score by 5 or 6?

[quote=Asi_Pasasi] ... [/quote]

Se7en 6-0s goons and War tied with Ascent, so Ora's TB score increases if Ascent doesn't get points against Faint. Taking 0-6 gets Ora 43 and War just over 40. Did you divide War's score by 5 or 6?
17
#17
7 Frags +
crib_Asi_Pasasi ...
Se7en 6-0s goons and War tied with Ascent, so Ora's TB score increases if Ascent doesn't get points against Faint. Taking 0-6 gets Ora 43 and War just over 40. Did you divide War's score by 5 or 6?

so what you are saying is Ora still has a chance

https://i1.wp.com/metro.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/SEI_73607257.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&zoom=1&resize=644%2C290&ssl=1

[quote=crib_][quote=Asi_Pasasi] ... [/quote]

Se7en 6-0s goons and War tied with Ascent, so Ora's TB score increases if Ascent doesn't get points against Faint. Taking 0-6 gets Ora 43 and War just over 40. Did you divide War's score by 5 or 6?[/quote]
so what you are saying is Ora still has a chance [img]https://i1.wp.com/metro.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/SEI_73607257.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&zoom=1&resize=644%2C290&ssl=1[/img]
18
#18
0 Frags +
crib_Asi_Pasasi ...
Se7en 6-0s goons and War tied with Ascent, so Ora's TB score increases if Ascent doesn't get points against Faint. Taking 0-6 gets Ora 43 and War just over 40. Did you divide War's score by 5 or 6?

I divided War's score by 6 because their match against Se7en isn't "valid" but I divided Ora's by 7 because they have 7 "valid" matches (and according to the points you presented War's is higher after division).

[quote=crib_][quote=Asi_Pasasi] ... [/quote]

Se7en 6-0s goons and War tied with Ascent, so Ora's TB score increases if Ascent doesn't get points against Faint. Taking 0-6 gets Ora 43 and War just over 40. Did you divide War's score by 5 or 6?[/quote]
I divided War's score by 6 because their match against Se7en isn't "valid" but I divided Ora's by 7 because they have 7 "valid" matches (and according to the points you presented War's is higher after division).
19
#19
6 Frags +
Asi_PasasiI divided War's score by 6 because their match against Se7en isn't "valid" but I divided Ora's by 7 because they have 7 "valid" matches (and according to the points you presented War's is higher after division).

From Section 1.2 in ETF2L rules

ETF2L Use only scores and opponents from “valid” matches (matches that were not default wins and were not against dropped opponents).

Def. loss != Def. Win, and it makes no sense that taking a default loss puts you higher up in tables and in premiership playoffs. Whoever made the algorithm probably had this in mind which is why they only mentioned default wins.

If Ora had taken a default loss, or if War & Sons played against Se7en, Ora would have a higher chance to be in playoffs, dependent on Faint-Ascent game. Maybe I'm wrong and the ETF2L rules are just ambiguously stated, but if so, that leaves a lower ranked team no incentive to even try against Se7en and ruins the competitive integrity. Not saying anyone did this intentionally, just that this is open to abuse.

If you are wrong and default losses are counted as valid matches, Faint have to get 3 or more points for Ora Electro to get into playoffs.

[quote=Asi_Pasasi]
I divided War's score by 6 because their match against Se7en isn't "valid" but I divided Ora's by 7 because they have 7 "valid" matches (and according to the points you presented War's is higher after division).[/quote]

From Section 1.2 in [url=http://etf2l.org/season-33-rules/]ETF2L rules[/url]

[quote=ETF2L] Use only scores and opponents from “valid” matches (matches that were not default wins and were not against dropped opponents).[/quote]

Def. loss != Def. Win, and it makes no sense that taking a default loss puts you higher up in tables and in premiership playoffs. Whoever made the algorithm probably had this in mind which is why they only mentioned default wins.

If Ora had taken a default loss, or if War & Sons played against Se7en, Ora would have a higher chance to be in playoffs, dependent on Faint-Ascent game. Maybe I'm wrong and the ETF2L rules are just ambiguously stated, but if so, that leaves a lower ranked team no incentive to even try against Se7en and ruins the competitive integrity. Not saying anyone did this intentionally, just that this is open to abuse.

If you are wrong and default losses are counted as valid matches, Faint have to get 3 or more points for Ora Electro to get into playoffs.
20
#20
2 Frags +
crib_From Section 1.2 in ETF2L rules
ETF2L Use only scores and opponents from “valid” matches (matches that were not default wins and were not against dropped opponents).
Def. loss != Def. Win, and it makes no sense that taking a default loss puts you higher up in tables and in premiership playoffs. Whoever made the algorithm probably had this in mind which is why they only mentioned default wins.

If Ora had taken a default loss, or if War & Sons played against Se7en, Ora would have a higher chance to be in playoffs, dependent on Faint-Ascent game. Maybe I'm wrong and the ETF2L rules are just ambiguously stated, but if so, that leaves a lower ranked team no incentive to even try against Se7en and ruins the competitive integrity. Not saying anyone did this intentionally, just that this is open to abuse.

If you are wrong and default losses are counted as valid matches, Faint have to get 3 or more points for Ora Electro to get into playoffs.

I hope I'm wrong because it seemed very weird for me as well that such abuse can happen (intentionally or unintentionally). If I am wrong about the rules then this chart should be right: https://imgur.com/WgBdlxj (places where it says equal are when the tiebreaker scores are even so it needs to go over to the next tiebreaker but that's rounds scored and they both scored 27 rounds. if rounds lost also matter then WAR have 31 and ORA 38 so WAR would qualify but I think that in that case there would be a match instead)
Admins please confirm how the system works

chart has been updated

[quote=crib_]
From Section 1.2 in [url=http://etf2l.org/season-33-rules/]ETF2L rules[/url]

[quote=ETF2L] Use only scores and opponents from “valid” matches (matches that were not default wins and were not against dropped opponents).[/quote]

Def. loss != Def. Win, and it makes no sense that taking a default loss puts you higher up in tables and in premiership playoffs. Whoever made the algorithm probably had this in mind which is why they only mentioned default wins.

If Ora had taken a default loss, or if War & Sons played against Se7en, Ora would have a higher chance to be in playoffs, dependent on Faint-Ascent game. Maybe I'm wrong and the ETF2L rules are just ambiguously stated, but if so, that leaves a lower ranked team no incentive to even try against Se7en and ruins the competitive integrity. Not saying anyone did this intentionally, just that this is open to abuse.

If you are wrong and default losses are counted as valid matches, Faint have to get 3 or more points for Ora Electro to get into playoffs.[/quote]
I hope I'm wrong because it seemed very weird for me as well that such abuse can happen (intentionally or unintentionally). If I am wrong about the rules then this chart should be right: https://imgur.com/WgBdlxj (places where it says equal are when the tiebreaker scores are even so it needs to go over to the next tiebreaker but that's rounds scored and they both scored 27 rounds. if rounds lost also matter then WAR have 31 and ORA 38 so WAR would qualify but I think that in that case there would be a match instead)
Admins please confirm how the system works

chart has been updated
21
#21
0 Frags +

open to bribes

open to bribes
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