classic thread

are you Orson Welles?

Every time they leave their house there's a chance the local wildlife might try to MGE them so they've developed crazy dm to cope.

Has a 20ft wingspan and flaps his arms to soar through the skies scanning the ground for unsuspecting medics.

https://i.imgur.com/stN9g5n.jpg

Large ma3laa

????

Glad to be getting these Toxic Fuckers out of the league. We'll be better off without them.

First really good bundle they've had in a long time. Have most of the games already but if you don't it's definitely worth it.

Never play on a team where any two of your players are in a relationship.

Best u can hope for is someone makes a game loosely based on 6es TF2 that retains a lot of the mechanics as a standalone game with matchmaking. If it was marketed as its own new thing instead of just a promod might garner a fair bit of attention as there's not many games it would be in direct competition with.

Valve might make a TF3 at some point but probably not before 2030

Told me the reason my grandmother had a stillbirth because she was a sinner and hadn't atoned properly. Pretty chill has good dm.

Updated team scores (unlikely to change much this far into the season):

https://i.imgur.com/eSLUT2X.png

Predictions for Agency vs SpireIQ:

https://i.imgur.com/72XvfTV.png

Koth:

https://i.imgur.com/YVCMPAW.png

Predictions for Happy Kronge Bois vs Goblin Zone:

https://i.imgur.com/CEJJOsF.png

trainign to be able to suck myself off

i've been on this forums since October 11, 2012
and worked hard for my 4 stars, i finally managed to get them and some cunt admin enables the thing that adjusts your stars to your downvotes.

i doubt anyone will care but it kinda pisses me off. especially since i don't know who it is.
-fuck off slimey worm
-sincerely griff

Big stats post here for playoffs matches:
I've been running a program that grabs scrim/match logs throughout the season and predicts the chance of teams taking rounds off one another for the purposes of match prediction.

The system is pretty simple, using all of a team's match/scrim history this season, it looks at the ratios of rounds won/lost of each team against one another and tries to determine a score that could be loosely interpreted as a 'skill level' for each team. If team A has score a and team B has score b then the chance of team A winning a round follows a logistic curve: 1/(1+e^(b-a)). To illustrate this, look at the following graph:

https://i.imgur.com/nDSFI6S.png

This allows you to get a sense of not only what the ranking of teams might look like, but also how much better than the other teams they are.

As of posting this, the team scores look something like this:

https://i.imgur.com/0wVcOvY.png

This would indicate that there is a fair gap between the top 3 teams and the other teams in advanced. This correlates relatively well with teams' positions in RGL, the team that I find most noticeably different is MySpectrumWiFi98-5G who seem pretty under rated by this metric. This might be because of underperformance in scrims, or because the team improved later into the season (something this isn't trying to evaluate).

Because this model is based on rounds, it can predict the outcomes of future games. However, there's a big problem with this as for whatever reason, under the RGL format it pretty much always expects games to go to winlimit. (This is because it's based on historical round duration, and I suspect because longer rounds tend to be cut off by going to timelimit).

In any case, here are predictions for tonights 3 games, which as I post this are probably near the end of the 1st half anyway (I'm a bit late to post this).

https://i.imgur.com/9C0iRwx.png

https://i.imgur.com/QaAeSS5.png

https://i.imgur.com/iXz84be.png

In theory these would be different for different maps, just because of the round durations, but because of the winlimit thing, it doesn't make much of a difference which map I choose. The chance of winning a round is probably different for different teams, but I don't know if I can easily estimate this, as the problem goes from having 16 dimensions to 121.