Lots of extra time at work so I looked into the Open Playoff picture and wrote this up for fun.
Hopefully just some additional reading material for Open.
The records posted below factor in matches I believe those teams should win/lose.
If the match is to close to call, I left it out of the record.
These 8 teams should finish with the attached records.
I'm not really going to talk about these teams since they already qualified for playoffs.
15-1 --- KRIT eSports
14-2 --- mr popo
14-2 --- Velocity Black
13-3 --- TwistedSinGG
12-4 --- OMNI5 eSports -- PROCESS match missing -- should beat whoever they play in makeup match
11-5 --- EVIL
11-5 --- DW12
11-5 --- ILICCN
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------
This next batch of 8 teams are mostly fighting for playoff seeding and all have a strong chance to lock a playoff spot. There are several key matches ahead for some of these teams and a few could get knocked out if they perform poorly and get upset.
10-5 --- Frick eSports --- This team has had a really easy schedule this season and only played 2 of the top 10 teams in the division. They should finish with at least 10 wins but can go 11-5 if they can beat Faint Gaming Blue on Badlands. A possible upset loss looms against Pancake-Waffle-Rifle but its not likely unless they don't try.
10-5 --- IWHBYD --- There should be no trouble with this team getting 10 wins and locking up a playoff spot. There is potential for 11-5 if they can defeat Faint Gaming Blue. I give them the edge in this match-up but it could be a very tight game.
9-5 ---- MAD LUXURIOUS --- At this time, MAD LUX should easily finish with at least 9 wins. They have an upcoming match against LWUMMD on Badlands in which I have to give them the edge. It is by no means an easy win and they need to come to play. They could very well end up 11-5 but since they are missing a SNAKEWATER match they have to wait and see who they get scheduled against.
9-5 ---- LWUMMD --- The biggest match for LWUMMD is against MAD LUX on Badlands next week and could be the best match of the week. However, the match I want to focus on is against kronge realm this Sunday on SNAKEWATER. LWUMMD is the pick to win but I wouldn't be overly surprised if kronge realm made this a tighter match than expected, a possible upset. Still, a final record of at least 10-6 should happen if not 11-5.
9-6 ---- BLANC Esports --- IMO we have had probably one of the toughest schedules from top to bottom in the entire division. We have played mostly every team competitively and had several chances to win matches that we ended up losing for one reason or another. All in all, a very fun season so far. I see no reason why we will not finish at least 9-7. Our match against Faint Gaming Blue should decide if we can hit 10-6 or not.
9-6 ---- kronge realm --- This team has had a pretty easy schedule up to this point. That said, they have played well and earned their spot by winning the matches they needed to win against Frick eSports, Salty Seamen and We Love Randal. The final 3 matches of the season may not be kind to kronge realm and they have the best chance for a 10th win against LWUMMD this Sunday on SNAKEWATER. All said, a 9-7 final record is likely.
9-7 ---- Alcohol Anonymous --- Teams like this knock out other more deserving teams every season because of bad scheduling. 3 FFW's and nothing more to note except maybe some decent games on Viaduct. Their final 2 matches should be easy wins to give them a 9-7 record and a good chance for playoffs.
9-6 ---- Milan effect --- Roster transfers and Roster shuffles define this team along with not a single notable win. There is a good chance they can finish the season at 9-7 because they play a dead team and are missing a match on SUNSHINE. If they get an easy make-up match, it will be 10-6, if not it will be 9-7 and on the playoff bubble.
Lots of extra time at work so I looked into the Open Playoff picture and wrote this up for fun.
Hopefully just some additional reading material for Open.
The records posted below factor in matches I believe those teams should win/lose.
If the match is to close to call, I left it out of the record.
[b][u]These 8 teams should finish with the attached records.
I'm not really going to talk about these teams since they already qualified for playoffs.[/u][/b]
[b]15-1[/b] --- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8700228]KRIT eSports[/url]
[b]14-2[/b] --- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8685905]mr popo[/url]
[b]14-2[/b] --- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/112562]Velocity Black[/url]
[b]13-3[/b] --- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8697168]TwistedSinGG[/url]
[b]12-4[/b] --- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8700653]OMNI5 eSports[/url] -- PROCESS match missing -- should beat whoever they play in makeup match
[b]11-5[/b] --- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8700342]EVIL[/url]
[b]11-5[/b] --- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/103189]DW12[/url]
[b]11-5[/b] --- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8700692]ILICCN[/url]
[b]-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------[/b]
[b][u]This next batch of 8 teams are mostly fighting for playoff seeding and all have a strong chance to lock a playoff spot. There are several key matches ahead for some of these teams and a few could get knocked out if they perform poorly and get upset.[/u][/b]
[b]10-5[/b] --- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8678644]Frick eSports[/url] --- This team has had a really easy schedule this season and only played 2 of the top 10 teams in the division. They should finish with at least 10 wins but can go 11-5 if they can beat Faint Gaming Blue on Badlands. A possible upset loss looms against Pancake-Waffle-Rifle but its not likely unless they don't try.
[b]10-5[/b] --- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/69580]IWHBYD[/url] --- There should be no trouble with this team getting 10 wins and locking up a playoff spot. There is potential for 11-5 if they can defeat Faint Gaming Blue. I give them the edge in this match-up but it could be a very tight game.
[b]9-5[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/150945]MAD LUXURIOUS[/url] --- At this time, MAD LUX should easily finish with at least 9 wins. They have an upcoming match against LWUMMD on Badlands in which I have to give them the edge. It is by no means an easy win and they need to come to play. They could very well end up 11-5 but since they are missing a SNAKEWATER match they have to wait and see who they get scheduled against.
[b]9-5[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/151509]LWUMMD[/url] --- The biggest match for LWUMMD is against MAD LUX on Badlands next week and could be the best match of the week. However, the match I want to focus on is against kronge realm this Sunday on SNAKEWATER. LWUMMD is the pick to win but I wouldn't be overly surprised if kronge realm made this a tighter match than expected, a possible upset. Still, a final record of at least 10-6 should happen if not 11-5.
[b]9-6[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/91584]BLANC Esports[/url] --- IMO we have had probably one of the toughest schedules from top to bottom in the entire division. We have played mostly every team competitively and had several chances to win matches that we ended up losing for one reason or another. All in all, a very fun season so far. I see no reason why we will not finish at least 9-7. Our match against Faint Gaming Blue should decide if we can hit 10-6 or not.
[b]9-6[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8682216]kronge realm[/url] --- This team has had a pretty easy schedule up to this point. That said, they have played well and earned their spot by winning the matches they needed to win against Frick eSports, Salty Seamen and We Love Randal. The final 3 matches of the season may not be kind to kronge realm and they have the best chance for a 10th win against LWUMMD this Sunday on SNAKEWATER. All said, a 9-7 final record is likely.
[b]9-7[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8699643]Alcohol Anonymous[/url] --- Teams like this knock out other more deserving teams every season because of bad scheduling. 3 FFW's and nothing more to note except maybe some decent games on Viaduct. Their final 2 matches should be easy wins to give them a 9-7 record and a good chance for playoffs.
[b]9-6[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/151283]Milan effect[/url] --- Roster transfers and Roster shuffles define this team along with not a single notable win. There is a good chance they can finish the season at 9-7 because they play a dead team and are missing a match on SUNSHINE. If they get an easy make-up match, it will be 10-6, if not it will be 9-7 and on the playoff bubble.
This final group of 8 teams are close to playoffs and most are on the outside looking in at the moment. Several match upsets need to happen inside this group for more than 1 or 2 of them to qualify for playoffs.
8-7 ---- Pancake-Waffle-Rifle --- An under the radar team that has played really well at the end of this season. A heartbreaking loss to Salty Seamen last night has really thrown their playoff chances to the wind. Both BLANC Esports and Frick eSports will be strong challenges for this squad but neither are beyond their ability to defeat. They need at least 1 upset win this week to have a chance.
8-7 ---- OK Kids --- I have to be honest, I don't know much about this team but looking at match results shows they have pulled rounds off some decent teams. They should get an easy 8th win against delicious activity but the match against clout up looks to be tight. If they pull out 2 wins and go 9-7, it will really throw a lot of playoff seeding into question.
8-7 ---- Salty Seamen --- This season has been up and down for these guys. Their record isn't a completely accurate reflection of how good they are. Their 4-3 win last night over Pancake-Waffle-Rifle may have saved the season and playoffs. I can see them easily securing an 8th win but the match against Undecided Team Name will be tight and could determine if they make playoffs at 9-7 or not.
7-8 ---- Slicerogue is a trashcan --- These guys could finish 8-8 if they beat Undecided Team Name. Either way they are likely out of the playoffs unless they get a lot of help from other teams but there is a small % chance.
7-8 ---- Undecided Team Name --- Another team that could finish 8-8 if they can beat Slicerogue is a trashcan. It should be a really good matchup between these two teams. There is an outside chance of this team finishing 9-7 if they can beat Slicerogue and then upset Salty Seamen on Badlands. I don't see both happening but I suppose it is possible for them to sneak into playoffs.
7-7 ---- We Love Randall --- This team faces a difficult playoff situation. They should secure a 7th win against dead team walking but BLANC Esports will be the big match. Even if they win both Badlands matches, they will be at the mercy of ESEA scheduling because they did not have a 2nd GRANARY match. Several solid teams are also missing matches so Randall needs to completely win out their final 3 matches for any playoff chance.
7-7 ---- clout up --- I think this team has under performed this season and should be sporting a better record considering the schedule they have been given. They have a bleak playoff situation ahead but should get an easy win over Big Win E-Sports. The match against OK Kids will be a lot more difficult and is a must-win. However, even with those two wins, they are missing a match on GRANARY so, depending on who they get scheduled against, it could be possible for a 9-7 finish but I don't think it's likely.
6-6 ---- Faint Gaming Blue --- I made Faint the final team on the list because they are in a unique situation. First off, they have 3 tough matches ahead against BLANC Esports, Frick eSports and IWHBYD. In all honesty, each of these 3 matches is too close to call. Secondly, they are missing a match on VIADUCT so I have no idea who they will play in their make-up game. From looking at the list of teams that are short a match, it could easily be against another competitive team and another too close to call match-up. Faint Gaming Blue has the talent to win out every remaining match and go 10-6.
I don't think they will run the table like that but each match will likely impact the whole bottom half of the playoff team positioning.
[b][u]This final group of 8 teams are close to playoffs and most are on the outside looking in at the moment. Several match upsets need to happen inside this group for more than 1 or 2 of them to qualify for playoffs.[/u][/b]
[b]8-7[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8678627]Pancake-Waffle-Rifle[/url] --- An under the radar team that has played really well at the end of this season. A heartbreaking loss to Salty Seamen last night has really thrown their playoff chances to the wind. Both BLANC Esports and Frick eSports will be strong challenges for this squad but neither are beyond their ability to defeat. They need at least 1 upset win this week to have a chance.
[b]8-7[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/130683]OK Kids[/url] --- I have to be honest, I don't know much about this team but looking at match results shows they have pulled rounds off some decent teams. They should get an easy 8th win against delicious activity but the match against clout up looks to be tight. If they pull out 2 wins and go 9-7, it will really throw a lot of playoff seeding into question.
[b]8-7[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/91668]Salty Seamen[/url] --- This season has been up and down for these guys. Their record isn't a completely accurate reflection of how good they are. Their 4-3 win last night over Pancake-Waffle-Rifle may have saved the season and playoffs. I can see them easily securing an 8th win but the match against Undecided Team Name will be tight and could determine if they make playoffs at 9-7 or not.
[b]7-8[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8700668]Slicerogue is a trashcan[/url] --- These guys could finish 8-8 if they beat Undecided Team Name. Either way they are likely out of the playoffs unless they get a lot of help from other teams but there is a small % chance.
[b]7-8[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8698471]Undecided Team Name[/url] --- Another team that could finish 8-8 if they can beat Slicerogue is a trashcan. It should be a really good matchup between these two teams. There is an outside chance of this team finishing 9-7 if they can beat Slicerogue and then upset Salty Seamen on Badlands. I don't see both happening but I suppose it is possible for them to sneak into playoffs.
[b]7-7[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/111741]We Love Randall[/url] --- This team faces a difficult playoff situation. They should secure a 7th win against dead team walking but BLANC Esports will be the big match. Even if they win both Badlands matches, they will be at the mercy of ESEA scheduling because they did not have a 2nd GRANARY match. Several solid teams are also missing matches so Randall needs to completely win out their final 3 matches for any playoff chance.
[b]7-7[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8693839]clout up[/url] --- I think this team has under performed this season and should be sporting a better record considering the schedule they have been given. They have a bleak playoff situation ahead but should get an easy win over Big Win E-Sports. The match against OK Kids will be a lot more difficult and is a must-win. However, even with those two wins, they are missing a match on GRANARY so, depending on who they get scheduled against, it could be possible for a 9-7 finish but I don't think it's likely.
[b]6-6[/b] ---- [url=https://play.esea.net/teams/8699298]Faint Gaming Blue[/url] --- I made Faint the final team on the list because they are in a unique situation. First off, they have 3 tough matches ahead against BLANC Esports, Frick eSports and IWHBYD. In all honesty, each of these 3 matches is too close to call. Secondly, they are missing a match on VIADUCT so I have no idea who they will play in their make-up game. From looking at the list of teams that are short a match, it could easily be against another competitive team and another too close to call match-up. Faint Gaming Blue has the talent to win out every remaining match and go 10-6.
I don't think they will run the table like that but each match will likely impact the whole bottom half of the playoff team positioning.
should be under the news section! well written
should be under the news section! well written
the tiebreakers for the teams are pretty interesting, too. notably, it's possible that Frick eSports could earn as high as a #6 seed, MLX could nab a really high seed too. cool write up
the tiebreakers for the teams are pretty interesting, too. notably, it's possible that Frick eSports could earn as high as a #6 seed, MLX could nab a really high seed too. cool write up
i thought you had to get 10-6 to be a qualifier for playoffs? that's what it was last season. So teams that are 9-7 can still make it?
i thought you had to get 10-6 to be a qualifier for playoffs? that's what it was last season. So teams that are 9-7 can still make it?
hayes Frick eSports could earn as high as a #6 seed
tfw someone as bad as me can make it to top 8. Shout out to my team for carrying my ass.
[quote=hayes] Frick eSports could earn as high as a #6 seed[/quote]
tfw someone as bad as me can make it to top 8. Shout out to my team for carrying my ass.
-Phantom-i thought you had to get 10-6 to be a qualifier for playoffs? that's what it was last season. So teams that are 9-7 can still make it?
It's been top 16 teams
[quote=-Phantom-]i thought you had to get 10-6 to be a qualifier for playoffs? that's what it was last season. So teams that are 9-7 can still make it?[/quote]
It's been top 16 teams
hayesthe tiebreakers for the teams are pretty interesting, too. notably, it's possible that Frick eSports could earn as high as a #6 seed, MLX could nab a really high seed too. cool write up
I've learned from many past season to not even try and figure tie-breakers out until all matches are complete or you will lose your mind.
Also remember that in a lot of cases, ESEA has to discard the H2H tie-breakers in favor of rounds won. There were several seasons where H2H win and losses did not solve the seeding problem between 3 or more teams with even records. Sometimes those 3+ teams don't play each other in the regular season and the tie-breaking rules go around in a circle giving no team an advantage over all teams they are tied with. Even typing this sounds confusing, but it happens and will likely happen this season as well with the 9-7 teams. "Rounds For" will likely determine who makes playoffs more than H2H for the 9-7 teams this season.
-Phantom-i thought you had to get 10-6 to be a qualifier for playoffs? that's what it was last season. So teams that are 9-7 can still make it?
10-6 and better is an automatic qualifier this season. Most 9-7 teams will make it, but it really depends on who wins some key matches. In all likelihood, some 9-7 teams will not make the playoffs if they have low Rounds Won.
[quote=hayes]the tiebreakers for the teams are pretty interesting, too. notably, it's possible that Frick eSports could earn as high as a #6 seed, MLX could nab a really high seed too. cool write up[/quote]
I've learned from many past season to not even try and figure tie-breakers out until all matches are complete or you will lose your mind.
Also remember that in a lot of cases, ESEA has to discard the H2H tie-breakers in favor of rounds won. There were several seasons where H2H win and losses did not solve the seeding problem between 3 or more teams with even records. Sometimes those 3+ teams don't play each other in the regular season and the tie-breaking rules go around in a circle giving no team an advantage over all teams they are tied with. Even typing this sounds confusing, but it happens and will likely happen this season as well with the 9-7 teams. "Rounds For" will likely determine who makes playoffs more than H2H for the 9-7 teams this season.
[quote=-Phantom-]i thought you had to get 10-6 to be a qualifier for playoffs? that's what it was last season. So teams that are 9-7 can still make it?[/quote]
10-6 and better is an automatic qualifier this season. Most 9-7 teams will make it, but it really depends on who wins some key matches. In all likelihood, some 9-7 teams will not make the playoffs if they have low Rounds Won.
FrickMyNickhayes Frick eSports could earn as high as a #6 seed
tfw someone as bad as me can make it to top 8. Shout out to my team for carrying my ass.
thank mr screwball
[quote=FrickMyNick][quote=hayes] Frick eSports could earn as high as a #6 seed[/quote]
tfw someone as bad as me can make it to top 8. Shout out to my team for carrying my ass.[/quote]
thank mr screwball
A small update before the matches tonight on how I predict the top 16 to be by the end of the season.
All Tie-Breakers, except mr popo and Velocity Black, have to be done by rounds for and not Head to Head.
Naturally, I have predicted some win/losses that could go either way but this is how I see it broken down:
#1 -- 15-1 (69) -- KRIT eSports
#2 -- 14-2 (67) -- mr popo -- (Beat Velocity Black H2H)
#3 -- 14-2 (63) -- Velocity Black -- (Lost to mr popo H2H)
#4 -- 13-3 (67) -- TwistedSinGG
#5 -- 12-4 (55-59) -- OMNI5 eSports
#6 -- 11-5 (59-62) -- EVIL
#7 -- 11-5 (59) -- IWHYBD
#8 -- 11-5 (57) -- LWUMMD
#9 -- 11-5 (54) -- ILICCN
#10-- 11-5 (53) -- DW12
#11-- 10-6 (57) -- Frick eSports
#12-- 9-7 (61) -- BLANC Esports
#13-- 9-7 (58-62) -- MAD LUXURIOUS
#14-- 9-7 (54) -- Faint Gaming Blue
#15-- 9-7 (49-51) -- kronge realm
#16-- 9-7 (49) -- Salty Seamen
A few teams could throw most of those bottom seeds for a shuffle with some key wins/losses.
If We Love Randall beats BLANC eSports tonight, the bottom half could look like this:
#12-- 9-7 (58-62) -- MAD LUX
#13-- 9-7 (54) -- FAINT
#14-- 9-7 (49-51) -- kronge realm
#15-- 9-7 (49) -- Salty Seamen
#16-- 9-7 (48) -- We Love Randall
Lastly, we have Milan effect. Their only chance at playoffs is to pull off an upset win in the final week of matches. If they finish at 9-7, they do not have enough rounds won to make the top 16. Milan effect play Omni5 eSports and MAD LUX. Both teams are a big challenge but if they are going to win a match it will likely be against MAD LUX.
Milan Effect vs MAD LUX is tonight and will likely decide if they can go 10-6 or not.
In truth, their are several other potential possibilities that can knock some teams out but they have such a small % chance of happening that I am not going to even mention them.
A small update before the matches tonight on how I predict the top 16 to be by the end of the season.
All Tie-Breakers, except mr popo and Velocity Black, have to be done by rounds for and not Head to Head.
Naturally, I have predicted some win/losses that could go either way but this is how I see it broken down:
#1 -- 15-1 (69) -- KRIT eSports
#2 -- 14-2 (67) -- mr popo -- (Beat Velocity Black H2H)
#3 -- 14-2 (63) -- Velocity Black -- (Lost to mr popo H2H)
#4 -- 13-3 (67) -- TwistedSinGG
#5 -- 12-4 (55-59) -- OMNI5 eSports
#6 -- 11-5 (59-62) -- EVIL
#7 -- 11-5 (59) -- IWHYBD
#8 -- 11-5 (57) -- LWUMMD
#9 -- 11-5 (54) -- ILICCN
#10-- 11-5 (53) -- DW12
#11-- 10-6 (57) -- Frick eSports
#12-- 9-7 (61) -- BLANC Esports
#13-- 9-7 (58-62) -- MAD LUXURIOUS
#14-- 9-7 (54) -- Faint Gaming Blue
#15-- 9-7 (49-51) -- kronge realm
#16-- 9-7 (49) -- Salty Seamen
A few teams could throw most of those bottom seeds for a shuffle with some key wins/losses.
If [url=https://play.esea.net/match/11756432]We Love Randall beats BLANC eSports tonight[/url], the bottom half could look like this:
#12-- 9-7 (58-62) -- MAD LUX
#13-- 9-7 (54) -- FAINT
#14-- 9-7 (49-51) -- kronge realm
#15-- 9-7 (49) -- Salty Seamen
#16-- 9-7 (48) -- We Love Randall
Lastly, we have Milan effect. Their only chance at playoffs is to pull off an upset win in the final week of matches. If they finish at 9-7, they do not have enough rounds won to make the top 16. Milan effect play Omni5 eSports and MAD LUX. Both teams are a big challenge but if they are going to win a match it will likely be against MAD LUX.
[url=https://play.esea.net/match/11741495]Milan Effect vs MAD LUX[/url] is tonight and will likely decide if they can go 10-6 or not.
In truth, their are several other potential possibilities that can knock some teams out but they have such a small % chance of happening that I am not going to even mention them.
SpaceCadet#7 -- 11-5 (59) -- IWHYBD
#8 -- 11-5 (57) -- LWUMMD
#9 -- 11-5 (54) -- ILICCN
THE ACRONYM SQUAD NEVER LOSES
[quote=SpaceCadet]
#7 -- 11-5 (59) -- IWHYBD
#8 -- 11-5 (57) -- LWUMMD
#9 -- 11-5 (54) -- ILICCN
[/quote]
THE ACRONYM SQUAD NEVER LOSES
Not that it changes much but i am like 90% sure that rf/ra is counted before h2h.
Not that it changes much but i am like 90% sure that rf/ra is counted before h2h.
I've never seen head to head be factored in
I've never seen head to head be factored in
Tino_Not that it changes much but i am like 90% sure that rf/ra is counted before h2h.
http://www.teamfortress.tv/43629/esea-open-s26-happenings-discussion/?page=49#1460
Rounds "against" are never a factor.
mustardoverlordSpaceCadet#7 -- 11-5 (59) -- IWHYBD
#8 -- 11-5 (57) -- LWUMMD
#9 -- 11-5 (54) -- ILICCN
THE ACRONYM SQUAD NEVER LOSES
I blame saam
[quote=Tino_]Not that it changes much but i am like 90% sure that rf/ra is counted before h2h.[/quote]
http://www.teamfortress.tv/43629/esea-open-s26-happenings-discussion/?page=49#1460
Rounds "against" are never a factor.
[quote=mustardoverlord][quote=SpaceCadet]
#7 -- 11-5 (59) -- IWHYBD
#8 -- 11-5 (57) -- LWUMMD
#9 -- 11-5 (54) -- ILICCN
[/quote]
THE ACRONYM SQUAD NEVER LOSES[/quote]
I blame saam