W5a Preds:

sidetalk > sekt mafia - something something pred for sidetalk every week. Rex + k1ng have good dm which helps on koth, but the new soldier duo + sidetalk's proven roster makes me think this will probably be a 4-0 or 4-1.

fgp > go raw! - I would like to take this time to wish fgp's own taiko an early happy birthday from everybody on the spring rolls analyst desk (aka just me). Just for you I will pred in your teams favor, surely there was no way I would've done so otherwise ! I hope you have a great day, everybody on your team clearly supports you!

(go raw!'s first match vs. a top team, their performance here will really guide my perception of them in the following weeks, although koth is a bit weird. Scouty sniper on viaduct though + yate is also very good makes me think the scout diffening will happen, feel free to prove me wrong).

chicken > spicy - I tried to have a hot take for spicy last week and it backfired so I'm only on beta preds now, FUCK spicy (all is forgiven if you win this match though cause that would be extremely beast).

obese > spaghetti - is jas back yet? idk but having a sniper player on this map would certainly be nice. Gonna assume he's not and pred a strong obese > spaghetti as their snakewater performance was bit weak. They had a good performance vs sidetalk on bagel though so maybe they're a koth team? who knows.

triiiple == perutech - gl;hf

hero's > pregame head
LFP > Jaguar - think LFP are pretty solid actually
bucket < BB - actually kind of hard to pred honestly, samantha diff maybe? idk. edit: actually after thinking about it i'm going with BB but still not sure.
extine > xXx

W4B Preds

fgp > whales - Exciting match, not 100% sure what fgp roster is though. I think scouts are stronger on fgp if they have the duo I think they have which will make the difference here, although there are clearly some x factors in play...

My theory was that sacking into second seems more difficult cause it's easier to spot and spam something like lower or through saw unless you are an absolute psychopath and hit something through window. Think most 5cp mids have high skyboxes; not sure about last. But again i simply theorycraft feel free to tell me if it was owning in ur match.

sidetalk == triiiple ak - gl;hf

chicken > sweaty - spaghetti 1st half vs. fgp was uh ... yeah don't press tab.

go raw! > bucket - dominant vs perutech, better on paper etc.

spicy > perutech - Alright I've been making some incredibly soy predictions so far so my first slightly hot take is that spicy is fired up and really wants this win. If I get proven wrong I'm never having a hot take ever again

LFP > hero - Not very sure on this match but a good performance vs sekt mafia from LFP gives me a bit more confidence for them.

Jaguar > head
BB > xXx
sekt mafia > extine

I think the ban lengths make sense if you put it in the context of "this person is cheating but we need proof, what's the longest ban length that is also not completely insane for people who are just very dumb and forgetful", but if you eventually submitted it I think it's a different case than people who just not submit because they're cheating.

Granted still kinda dumb to wait so long though so an infraction is prob still warranted to make it not impossible to admin the div.

Week 4a Preds

fgp > spaghetti - fgp has a really good pickup in scouty and spaghetti has to play with a sub on flank scout (maybe even had to pick them up this weekend lol idk), plus fgp undefeated so.

sidetalk > obese whales - my strategy of simply predding for sidetalk every week has failed me, simply inconceivable. Anyway, I do think they're still stronger on paper and i think snakewater is not the best bazooka map (idk feel free to prove me wrong i'm just spitballing here).

triiiple == chicken - gl;hf

go raw! < perutech - Finally get to see go raw against a playoff contender. Perutech had a rough time last week but I imagine their soldier duo is more comfortable on this map. Have to pred for Perutech because it's very hard to gauge go raw!'s strength given their schedule but would not be surprised if this is close/raw win.

spicy > bucket - bones is released from rgl jail and is going to go nuts as a result (I have no idea about this match.)

LFP < sekt mafia - sekt mafia has to redo their soldier combo but I think they're still better on paper

Jaguar > BB - just seem better

xXx ?????? pregame head - i have no idea

W2b:

sidetalk > perutech - perutech doesn't look too good on this map, i will pred for sidetalk always anyway, etc.
fgp < chicken - no throne (who is the best flank scout do not fall for brody trolling me) but kovacs is goated
spaghetti > jaguar - oops this match already happened
triiiple = whales gl;hf
go raw > BB
hero's journey < sekt mafia
spicy > xXx
bucket > head - heal samantha will probably be enough
LFP > burnsiders if rainoflight isn't playing i think

there are also a lot of teams i have not scrimmed and don't personally know well so if people have better info for predictions feel free to chime in !!

Ah shie... guess i'll do a logs.tf analysis of the most interesting match that happened (imo)

Chickenheads vs. Perutech (for the record would've predicted chickenheads to win but perhaps not as hard as they did)

• No stats really standout except for a good flank scout performance by kovacs vs. sagejay, soldiers seem superficially even but uh....

https://i.imgur.com/nRf6Lqz.png

yeah you don't want your midfights to look like that.

Remaining matches:

sidetalk > fgp - Based on logs raven is now in over scouty. I'm probably predicting sidetalk > any team for the rest of the season though regardless, and maybe their new pickup will actually be better overall for them only time will tell.

triiiple == spaghetti - gl;hf

whales > sekt mafia - Actually a really interesting match. I have a feeling that chell team wants it more but whales has multiple x factors (beggars bazooka funny, players with experience). Last week in our match vs. sekt mafia the first half was a bit of a roll on bagel but they didn't let it get to them and brought back new force in the second half; I hope to see something similar in case they happen to go down rounds early. Would not be surprised for a close match either way or a roll by whales, may watch this on stream if I'm truly sad and don't have a friday night.

Go raw > LFP - I think go raw has that classic go 0-2 early vs. top team contenders then coast for a bit. Next week matches look more interesting for them.

W2B

12 years > spaghetti - scrimmed both we got shitrolled by 12 years !
fgp > LFP
PERUTECH > hero's journey
triiiple = sekt mafia gl;hf
go raw! > spicy
whales > bombing balcony
bucket < jaguar played both actually not really sure though lol
head ??? extine

most interesting matches are prob triiiple vs sekt mafia (extremely unbiased) and 12 years vs. spaghetti

Hi brody is not doing match predictions this season so I will, feel free to get mad and dm me at springrolls#9091 if you have secret juicy information

W2A
12 years > Chickenheads - I think throne ahlicks probably best scout duo in the div but scouty misky prob #2. Soldiers slightly stronger on 12 years imo. XBS vs Maeko is interesting. Think it'll be a close match unless there's omega soldier/demo diff.
spaghetti > pugga's - controversially i do not think spaghetti will lose to a dead team
fgp > hero's journey - gonna be honest dont know anybody on hero's journey (no beef intended !) so gotta pred the team i lost to for my ego
PERUTECH > looking for padre - PERUTECH is good and they were good at this map I think when i played with them
triiiple = bucket - GL;HF
Obese Whales > Pregame Head - Unlucky matchup honestly, experience alone on obese whales will probably allow them a swift victory
Jaguar < Chell - I predict chell team will roll, feel free to prove me wrong though
Spicy > tacticalnukers - yeah im flipping a coin here but i think spicy has people who placed in IM so i'm going with them
go raw! > xXx - I think go raw sweeps their matches this week
bombing balcony > extine - I have no idea

I have nothing to offer towards the argument about what words should be allowed. To me though it's really questionable that rgl does not give any warnings on this topic and just heads straight to a 2 week ban on somebody with no prior infractions. Imagine a new player using words that they use IRL everyday where nobody bats an eye and then they get a sudden 2 weeks ban for it lol when it's not directed at anybody.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvGbGDuHZaI&t=53s

There's a plugin for it, it's being used next season in rgl.

iirc you can still detonate your own flare that is reflected, unless this was changed recently

Reflect detonator right before they det can do up to 170, you can see it in the vid using frame advance.

Bots in casual are obviously the biggest hindrance to a new player, but another huge barrier of entry is how fucking bad the default settings are. Like if I had any fps experience at all and felt the 100 default lerp 70 default fov lack of default quickswitch and cringe fps for a game relative to its time I'd be hard pressed to stick it through I feel. The tutorial is also ass (granted it's not great in overwatch too iirc, been a while).

anybody have that shade clip where he says "whenever b4nny asks me what uber is, i just lie. i have no fucking clue". I think it was on granary last.

I'd like to preface by saying I haven't seen any of these docs (although I knew about their existence) and have 0 desire to do so. I have a very surface level of understanding of what happened.

I think ultimately, while you might have had good intentions, leaking the documents is absolutely 100% not your call and a serious violation of the trust that community members have in RGL. A victim sharing details among their close circle is absolutely in no way permission to disseminate info at large (and you have to know that something like a google doc especially would spread like wildfire, thinking otherwise is just incredibly delusional). It rips the agency from victims and dissuades future people from reporting if they believe that RGL is not as private as it may seem. It also opens up people to harassment from outside parties. The punishment that RGL has given is quite literally as harsh as they could possibly deal out, if you personally feel that the court of public opinion should also punish the abusers that's fine but it's not your call to make.

If you had grievances with how perma-bans were handled that is certainly a potentially reasonable viewpoint, but there are a million better ways of handling that that do not both add further harm to victims and undermine community trust in the league. RGL is IMO absolutely within their right to punish you basically how they see fit, given that as an admin you represented the league in some capacity.

I am sorry to hear about the apparent existence of a double standard as well as your own traumatic experiences; obviously if those are true some punishments are in order. But as you alluded to, it's really not an excuse. Given all that, I think the ban length is fair (maybe the ban for cheating is too lenient if anything).