IM Week 6 Predictions and Explanations: Bagel Week

Match 1:
chewie live 4:0 Back to the Lab Again - It's a top vs bottom matchup and I've lost to cl on bagel with both moose and cin on my team :c

aurs and hars 4:1 Soupcan Hatewatchers - I hate to bet against myself, but aurs has been good recently and we will be missing our maincaller and pscout for this one, bad timing.

Agartha 4:0 Guangdong Tigers - This might not be a 4-0 if Agartha don't answer the Guangdong heavy well, but I think they should be good in this matchup.

Green Goblin Gang 4:2 Screaming Seagulls - This match will probably be reasonably close, I think I favour GGG in the end as they are the stronger team overall, but this game could surprise you.

yodi family 4:1 DFICR - This could easily be a 4:0 but I'm giving the rabbits a round since I don't trust the family to be the most consistent team.

Match 2:
chewie live 4:0 aurs and hars - While I think it's definitely possible for the second place aurs and hars to take a round, I still don't think it's likely at the end of the day.

Soupcan Hatewatchers 4:3 Agartha - This game I expect to be close, we should have our full roster for this one and these teams are pretty balanced (Despite what the previous 5-0 may look like).

Green Goblin Gang 4:0 Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits - While DFICR have played some pretty solid games, I think they're still unlikely to find success vs GGG.

yodi family 4:1 Screaming Seagulls - I think bagel gives rohi a good place to do a lot of damage and while I think the team overall will still get crushed I think they might sneak a round.

Buffoon Platoon 4:2 Guangdong Tigers - BP just haven't looked that consistent and while they have been pretty competitive with the top teams, I think it will take a bit for them to close out this map. They still take the W in the end imo.

There's less matchups this week since HH dying last week has led to only 11 teams so 1 team will get a buy each round which I have not included.

Actual results and comparisons
Match 1
chewie live 5:0 Screaming Seagulls - The super serious team played well and closed out the 5-0. The Seagulls managed to run out the clock on round 2 but couldn't ever get any momentum after losing every midfight.

aurs and hars 5:0 Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits - This game was a solid demonstration of why aurs is the stand out #2 team in the div currently. A solid 16 min 5-0.

Soupcan Hatewatchers 5:1 Back to the Lab Again - We ended up dropping a round and this game went a full 36 mins but we got there in the end. Shoutout to me ;3 for playing pretty well. Also soup for murdering 35 people.

Agartha 3:2 Yodi Family - I predicted 4-2 for this matchup but this game ended up being even closer than I expected going to a 36 min golden cap. Agartha initially dropped down 0-2 with their substitute scout player struggling initially. After swapping their sub to medic and moving their medic to fscout they managed to claw back one of the closest matches so far this season. This was def the game to watch.

Match 2
chewie live 5:0 Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits - It was quick... 8:31. Shout out to hallu for going 14-0 with 300+ dpm and sub 100 dtm. Talented player :3

aurs and hars 5:1 Screaming Seagulls - While the Seagulls did manage to take a round, going above my expectations, they still lost relatively swiftly.

Soupcan Hatewatchers 5:FF Hardcore Heaven - The second team to die this season is HH dying the day before our match. RIP.

Agartha 4:3 Buffoon Platoon - I predicted this to be a fairly routine 5:1 victory for Agartha. While they got there in the end this was anything but routine. This was a brutal 46 minute back and forth fistfight of a match. This game could easily have gone either way, but Agartha being slightly more skilled on the midfights was what I think lead to them eventually claiming the W. After these two insanely close games Agartha clearly deserves some relaxation.

Green Goblin Gang 1:FF Back to the Lab Again - BttLA unexpectedly no-showed this match. The team doesn't appear dead but has not communicated about this FF.

yodi family 4:2 Guangdong Tigers - This matchup ended up being quite a bit closer than expected likely through a combination of yodi showing up to have fun with both their flank scout playing full time pyro and demo offclassing substantially as well as the guangdong pocket scout train showing up with an impressive 42 kill performance. A fun game for everyone involved I hope.

Overall Results
Correct Pick: 8/8 With two FFs and me being slow and not getting predictions for two matches I feel this hardly counts.
Correct Scoreline: 3/8

Sorry again for being slow, I will be better next week :(

IM Week 5 Predictions and Explanations
Match 1:

chewie live 5:0 Screaming Seagulls - Screaming Seagulls have looked a bit better recently but I still can't see them taking a round vs the super serious team.

aurs and hars 5:0 Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits - aurs has a lot of momentum after beating 4 relatively strong teams in a row. I expect them to continue that streak.

Soupcan Hatewatchers 5:0 Back to the Lab Again - While SH are still dealing with the impact of losing 5:0 to Agartha in the previous week, I still expect them (us) to perform well vs the no scrim team that hasn't played tf2 in 6 years.

Agartha 4:2 yodi family - I expect this game to be quite close and really could go either way, my pick for the most interesting matchup this week. I give the slight edge to Agartha based on recent results, we will see.

Match 2:

chewie live 5:0 Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits - This will be quick...

aurs and hars 5:0 Screaming Seagulls - I could see the seagulls taking a round or two but I think aurs and hars is definitely the stronger team and I believe they could totally take the 5:0.

Soupcan Hatewatchers 5:0 Hardcore Heaven - HH seems like the weakest team overall and in a top vs bottom matchup you can only predict a quick loss.

Agartha 5:1 Buffoon Platoon - Buffoon Platoon struggled on gully vs Back to the Lab Again, given that I predict them to have a lot of trouble vs Agartha with the momentum.

Green Goblin Gang 5:0 Back to the Lab Again - GGG has been playing better these last few weeks, I expect them to win convincingly.

yodi family 5:0 Guangdong Tigers - Guangdong seems likely to struggle vs most of the stronger teams, could still be fun tho :)

Sorry for the delay, I passed out in the middle of writing this and didn't get it out in time. There's two matchups missing from the first set since I didn't write predictions before those matchups actually happened and can't predict in good faith after the fact.

Any particularly surprising results?

Actual results and comparisons
Match 1
chewie live 5:0 yodi family - While yodi family did manage to hold last a few times, they mostly just got rolled, prediction was accurate.

Soupcan Hatewatchers 0:5 - Agartha - I clearly believed in my team too much here, Agartha has been looking a lot better since the first couple weeks and SH have been dealing with some internal struggles. This matchup ended up not being very close.

aurs and hars 4:3 Green Goblin Gang - This game was very close and volatile as expected. A very grindy back and forth game.

Buffoon Platoon 3:2 Back to the Lab Again - I really thought this matchup wouldn't be close but back to the lab again surprised me. While they weren't able to take home the win this game ended up being much much closer than I expected. Maybe the old guys still have some fight in them.

Screaming Seagulls 5:0 Hardcore Heaven - This game ended up being a fair swift 5:0, while I did expect rohi to do well I want to shout out red charge for the 300+ dpm performance as well.

Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits 3:0 Guangdong Tigers - This game ended up being a lot grindier than I initially expected but the Rabbits ended up winning in the end. I want to give a personal shoutout to jay the DFICR pocket scout for being the stable core they needed to deal with the pyro and soldier shenanigans.

Match 2
chewie live 5:0 Buffoon Platoon - This match was basically a stomp, BP did manage a couple mid fight wins but were swiftly crushed. Somehow the two medics here only combined for 4 ubers totally across 5 rounds.

Soupcan Hatewatchers 5:1 Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits - While the struggles did continue and we did drop a round, these teams aren't really all that close in skill and this game wrapped up quickly.

aurs and hars 4:2 Agartha - This game was also fairly close as expected but Argus continues to be a dominant force on flank scout in the div going 34-12 to win the matchup in 34 mins. Midfights almost always going aurs and hars way definitely helped them take home the win.

yodi family 5:0 Screaming Seagulls - I expect the seagulls to take some rounds, but the family came to play and dispatched them in a very fast sub 12 min 5:0. Big shoutout to yodis demo Scrrt Scout for crushing the demo matchup with 425 dpm.

Green Goblin Gang 5:0 Hardcore Heaven - HH does seem like the weakest team overall right now, they were quickly dispatched, unable to win a midfight. It wasn't a complete roll but GGG was clearly a much better team.

Back to the Lab Again 5:0 Guangdong Tigers - This match ended up being a lot less close than I predicted. Having both no scout and no pyro left the guangdong medic very exposed and BttLA capitalized, closing the game out in 20 mins. They did manage to have some fun of their own, playing 6 mins of pyro as well though :)

Overall Results
Correct Pick: 11/12 - The only one I got wrong was predicting my own team to win :c
Correct Scoreline: 4/12 - The round scores are very hard to predict, close games are very volatile but overall I think I under estimated how dominant some teams would be in some matchups.

The bias was so strong :c

IM Week 4 Predictions and Explanations

Match 1
chewie live 5:0 yodi family - yodi family has had some struggles recently and its pretty easy to predict cl to not drop a round. Probably won't be close.

Soupcan Hatewatchers 5:2 Agartha - I am of course biased believing in my team, but I do think we are the better team overall and while I don't expect it to be super clean I think we will win.

aurs and hars 4:2 Green Goblin Gang - I expect this game to be a bit messy but I do think aurs and hars is the better team overall, score is kinda impossible to predict imo.

Buffoon Platoon 5:0 Back to the Lab Again - Buffoon Platoon is definitely the stronger team overall, I don't think the match up will be close.

Screaming Seagulls 5:0 Hardcore Heaven - Another game for rohi to stat farm, should be a fun game.

Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits 5:2 Guangdong Tigers - This game will probably be extremely messy but I think Guangdong will have a lot of fun but end up losing.

Match 2
chewie live 5:0 Buffoon Platoon - Similar to the match 1, while Buffoon Platoon has had some improvement recently I still can't see them taking a round off the top team.

Soupcan Hatewatchers 5:0 Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits - Top team vs bottom team, we are inconsistent but we shouldnt lose a round here.

aurs and hars 3:1 Agartha - Another interesting/close game, could go either way but I give aurs the edge.

yodi family 5:2 Screaming Seagulls - Screaming Seagulls only really has one strong player I expect them to put up some fight but I think yodi family is the better team.

Green Goblin Gang 5:0 Hardcore Heaven - While GGG have had some difficulties I can't imagine them struggling vs HH

Back to the Lab Again 5:3 Guangdong Tigers - Will be a very silly match, hope everyone has fun :3

Tell me what you think, hope to see some good matches.

Actual Results:
Match 1
chewie live 4:1 Soupcan Hatewatchers - Match went pretty much as expected, some close rounds but def a difference in overall prep and coordination.

yodi family 4:2 Green Goblin Gang - My prediction was off by a round but mostly accurate. Kooldan dropped a cool 51 kills on flank scout to seal the deal in this matchup.

BP 0:4 Aurs and Hars - Prediction ended up being accurate, a few close rounds but the scout DM difference was pretty large, esp for Argus, keep a close eye on this Invite HL scout playing sixes for the first time.

Agartha 4:0 Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits - Another accurate prediction, the rabbits are likely to struggle vs most of the mid and top teams this season in my eyes.

Back to the Lab Again 0:4 Screaming Seagulls - Rohi managed to exceed even my expectations dropping a crazy 494 dpm, shout out to the opposing demo ATT- for also managing to hit 400+

Hardcore Heaven 1:4 Guangdong Tigers - I expected the HL team to succeed in koth and for this match at least they did, with their sniper player train hitting 36 kills and 431 dpm on sniper. Every round ended up being super close as these teams competed to have the most fun, but in the end my prediction was a round off as Guangdong won 5-1.

Match 2
chewie live 4:0 Green Goblin Gang - this match was not very close honestly, shoutout to hallu for the 34 kills to only 7 deaths as flank scout.

soupcan hatewatchers 3:4 aurs and hars - My first big incorrect prediction this week, maybe due to personal bias? (I am on soupcan hatewatchers) SH really struggled to play together as a team and losing every mid fight ended up leading to a close but deserved loss.

yodi family 2:4 Buffoon Platoon - My second incorrect prediction as Buffoon Platoon really showed up to play while yodi family seemed to struggle on product more than other maps. Shoutout to tandem for falling just 1 kill short of the 50 bomb in this crazy close matchup. (Round 3 went 9 minutes???)

Agartha 4:1 Back to the Lab Again - This game ended up being closer than I expected it to be, but the combination of their 40 kill fulltime sniper guncrime and 45 kill solo scout user ended up pulling through.

Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits 4:3 - Another matchup that ended up being much closer than I expected but after a crazy back and forth match the team I predicted did still come out on top. Shout of to loot for monopolizing all the tf2 gameplay and hitting both 40+ kills and 40+ deaths in the same match.

Screaming Seagulls 4:3 Guangdong Tigers - Despite their heavy managing do drop almost 50 kills, Guangdong might have gotten too silly with it as they fall in my third incorrect prediction of the week. Shoutout to Rohi for managing to hit a very silly 501 DPM.

Totals:
Correct Selection: 9/12
Accurate Round Count 5/12

Some of these matches are more competitive than I initially would have expected, good luck to all teams in next week, hope we get to see some more fun tf2.

IM Week 3 Predictions and Explanations
Match 1
chewie live 4:1 Soupcan Hatewatchers - cl_ is the team to beat and while SH is the other undefeated team, their coordination still needs some work. Could be an interesting matchup but expect cl to win.

yodi family 4:1 GGG - two inconsistent teams matching up makes for a very hard match to predict. I expect the matchup won't be close but I really don't know who will win, I get yodi family the edge but performance on the day will make or break.

Buffoon Platoon 0:4 aurs and hars - A&H should be the stronger team overall and on koth I really can't see BP being a threat to them.

Agartha 4:0 Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits - These teams really aren't on the same level, should be a fast game.

Back to the Lab Again (Again) 0:4 Screaming Seagulls - Expect Rohi to drop 400 dpm and blow up this matchup.

HARDCORE HEAVEN 0:4 Guangdong Tigers - HH is not a strong team and I expect them to struggle a lot on koth vs the HL team.

Match 2
chewie live 4:0 GGG - cl_ is def a stronger team overall and with GGGs recent struggles I can't see them taking a round.

Soupcan Hatewatchers 4:1 Aurs and Hars - Another potentially interesting matchup but SH should come out on top in my expectations.

yodi family 4:0 Buffoon Platoon - I can't see BP being an effect team on koth with their playstyle, prove me wrong :)

Agartha 4:0 Back to the Lab Again (Again) - Should be another clean sweep for Agartha, they struggled a bit week 1 but I can't see this team losing to the bottom teams.

Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits 4:1 HARDCORE HEAVEN - While both these teams are bottom IM teams, the rabbits have shown themselves to be the best of the bottom teams, might be close but I expect them to continue that trend.

Screaming Seagulls 0:4 Guangdong Tiger - Fighting the HL team on koth with a stronger sniper player will likely cause problems for most teams and with the seagulls lack of experience I think they will struggle in this MU.

Actual results:
CL 5:0 GuangDong - Game was longer than expected but the result was the same.
SH 5:0 GGG - GGG was suffering from some internal issues which made this game less competitive than it probably should have been.
yodi family 2:1 aurs and hars - In a surprising (at least to me) upset yodi family managed to clinch the win after a brutal 48 minute back and forth.
Buffoon Platoon 5:0 Screaming Seagulls - This match ended up being more one sided than expected, while it did take 32 mins it did end up going to 5 rounds.
Agartha 1:FF Lesbian Vampyres FFd and also no showed their first match this week, is the team dead?
DFR 4:3 BttLAA - This match was definitely hard to call but the cold rabbits manage to squeak out the win after a long and grueling 47 min affair.

Overall result:
Correct selection 4/6
Accurate round count: 1/6

See you next week for more predictions, should have some interesting matchups.

Getting back into the game after a couple years. Looking for a mentor to help me catch up to the competition. Currently in IM for a de-rust season but will likely play main or possibly advanced next season. Please reach out if you can help :)

Steam: https://steamcommunity.com/id/LilliyaCat/
RGL: https://rgl.gg/Public/PlayerProfile?p=76561198158643171

IM Week 2 Match 2 Predictions and Explanations:

chewie live 5 vs Guangdong Tiger 0: it is guangdongs first game in IM but with chewie live being the obvious favourites in the div, we expect a fast 5-0.

Soupcan Hatewatchers 4 vs Green Goblin Gang 2: likely to be a close game, could go either way but favor SH due to scrim records.

yodi family 1 vs aurs and hars 5: could be close but aurs seems to be the stronger team overall, esp on process.

Buffoon Platoon 4 vs Screaming Seagulls 1: Buffoon Platoon is a better team overall but they tend to have a slow and grindy playstyle, I doubt this goes to 5 rounds.

Agartha 5 vs Lesbian Vampyres From Space 0: Agartha was one of the stronger teams in the pre season and while their results in week 1 were disappointing I can't see them losing a round to Lesbian Vampyres, don't count this team out.

Dead Frozen Ice Cream Rabbits 2 vs Back to the Lab Again 5: Difficult to call but BttLA Probably takes it in the end.

Good luck to all teams.

We're going to win IM for sure!

https://www.teamfortress.tv/64317/omg-4

I'm pretty sure what this means is that it's an 8 team double elimination bracket, however the bottom 4 teams will start in the lower bracket. (It will effectively be single elim for the bottom 4 teams). Anyone can get first but the top 4 teams get two lives and two of the bottom 4 teams will get eliminated first round.