Playoffs Week 2 brought the playoffs run of Yeye to an abrupt end, followed shortly after by 3rd place Break The Meta being knocked out of playoffs by Desperado Crash mambo Combo. This leaves the Grand Finals match between DCMC and My RGL Profits Have Declined. I will quickly post my ”ABBREVIATED POWER RANKINGS” a super exciting feature where I use my knowledge of the match results to make my Power Rankings more accurate while also ranking the two remaining teams playing matches in Challenger.
ABBREVIATED POWER RANKINGS
- My RGL Profits Have Declined
- Desperado Crash Mambo Combo
- Break the Meta (+1)
- Yeye (-1)
I am sure that Yeye is disappointed by their playoffs run ending without a placement, but judging by the fact they are already looking to play next season, I am sure that that has not left them mentally defeated. Congratulations to BTM for placement, I hope that you guys also choose to try and improve as a team for next season after you already improved a lot over the normal season. The top two teams are unchanged and it’s unsurprising to see them both in Grand Finals. As I forgot about the article last week, I will review the matches from the 2nd and the 3rd week of playoffs.
Playoffs Week 2 Match Analysis and Write-Up
My RGL Profits Have Declined v. DCMC (2-0) - Logs
A 3-0 on any map is usually a pretty convincing win for a team, and Profits managed to do it twice against BTM. While it is not as if BTM managed to get no time on the clock during their rounds, these rounds were also not particularly close. It’s notable that Markers and kjr for BTM managed to do a lot of work despite their team getting rolled, but it was obviously not enough here to salvage their team by and large doing substantially worse on virtually all other classes when compared to Profits.
Standout players: reigh and sobigallmytoesarebigtoes for Profits_. __Markers and kjr for BTM.
DCMC v. Yeye (2-0) - Product Logs Swiftwater Logs
A bit closer than one might have expected, given how hard the 3-0 roll on Product was, DCMC managed to put up a bit of a fight on Swiftwater, taking the map to 2-1 but falling just short of making it to map 3. However, the 2-0 result speaks more to how hard DCMC failed at map picks/bans rather than an inability to beat Profits. On a map they are closer in skill on, like Swiftwater, DCMC can take it to 2-1. On a map they are not close in skill on, like Product, it’s frankly not even close. With even the Engineer for Profits getting more kills than anyone on DCMC on Product, you know it was not a good game. Swiftwater was closer to a battle of attrition, with both teams having very similar levels of performance, ending the game with nearly the same amount of kills and damage. The biggest difference was in the medic performance, where reigh for Profits substantially outperformed Q for DCMC by almost all metrics. This played a massive roll in helping an underwhelming performance by Demo TeatsMcGee for Profits not be game losing (especially when compared to an outstanding performance by Demo DZCreeper for DCMC). Other than that, all the usual suspects you would expect to perform, did perform. Scout Reese and Soldier Bliztank both performed very well, outperforming both Scout sobigallmytoesarebigtoes and Soldier rev for Profits. Frankly, the match was decided most obviously by substantially cleaner play across the two rounds they won by Profits. Losing closely to getting minorly (but significantly) outplayed gives hope that DCMC may be able to contest Profits in the Grand Finals.
Standout players: TheS4rr<3& T.K. for Profits. Reese & DZCreeper for DCMC.
Yeye v. Break the Meta (0-2) Combined Log
The other Week 2 match, and another match which was decided before maps were even picked. Yeye is a team with DM that is (frankly) far superior to that of BTM but, arthur than take it to KOTH like you would expect, they chose to pick not one but two different Payload maps (Swiftwater and Vigil), one of which they lost. While I expected them to lose Swiftwater, it was a little surprising seeing them lose Upward as well. Both maps were taken to 2-1 in favor of BTM. While it is a little snippy to sum up the game-deciding variable with one sentence, it would be fair to say that the biggest swing in BTM’s favor this match was just this: Sniper diff. Markers for BTM did what he had to do, he went absolutely nuclear and top fragged in the server for every single round his team won. If that is not pounding, I do not know what is. Markers was also backed up by a superstar performance by Demo kjr who, more often than not, was up there second-fragging after Markers in every round won by BTM. It is painful to see the flank of Yeye in Scout dotwet and Soldier Toss top and third-frag for their team when only Payload was picked, and you could only imagine that the substantial flank difference in their favor would have paid dividends if they had actually gotten to play maps where flank can have more of an impact. With two close losses behind them, Yeye was the first team knocked out of playoffs.
Standout players: dotwet & Toss for Yeye. Markers & kjr for BTM.
Playoffs Week 3 Match Analysis and Write-Up
The third week had only one match to decide who the bronze medalist of the season would be.
Desperado Crash Mambo Combo v. Break the Meta (2-1) _Product logs Swiftwater logs Lakeside logs
_ The first match of playoffs to go all 3 maps, this was one of the closest matches (if you look just at the total score). However, the maps themselves were not awfully close. With both KOTH being a roll for DCMC, and Swiftwater being a roll for BTM, this match showed how lopsided both of these teams are, but the map picks themselves fell in favor of DCMC. For the first map of the set, Product, DCMC set the tone with a convincing 3-0 roll. Securing over 40 more frags and with superior performances on virtually every class on the part of DCMC, this was not a quick 1-0 map lead for DCMC.
The second map of the set saw BTM bounce back on a stopwatch map, a format which DCMC is frankly not very good at. Despite solid performances on the part of DCMC they, much like in their Playoffs Week 2 match against My RGL Profits Have Declined, saw themselves simply getting outplayed on the objective of the map, and failing to beat or defend pretty average times for the map. That being said, any momentum BTM might have had going into map 3 was always going to be short-lived as it was, yet again, KOTH.
For the final map of the set, despite picking one of DCMC’s worst maps, the DM differential was simply too much to overcome for BTM to take advantage of their Lakeside pick, losing it 3-1. While normally I would expect for kjr for BTM to have outperformed DZCreeper for DCMC, that did not happen with DZCreeper getting over 100 more DPM and 16 more frags than kjr. Markers for BTM was also adequately handled on Lakeside, unlike in his match v. Yeye, with jak for DCMC getting 9 Sniper kills by himself alongside cinder winning the Sniper v. Sniper 6-5. With their two biggest stars shut down, they were unable to amass the frags and damage they needed to take them over the edge for Lakeside, leading to a relatively quick 3-1 loss.
Standout players: Reese & DZCreeper for DCMC. Valikyr & DoofedUpWeiner for BTM.
Playoffs Week 3 (GRAND FINALS!!) Match Prediction
With the final week comes what I predict to be the final match this season, no Cinderella story coming from Lower Bracket for DCMC, rather a pretty decisive 1st place for Profits and a solid 2nd for DCMC. Congratulations are in order for BTM for overcoming a relatively rocky start of their season and a tough match against Yeye to secure a Bronze in this debut season of the Challenger division. With that being said, it’s time to cast our gaze on the Grand Finals match itself to see what we see.
My RGL Profits Have Declined v. DCMC (2-0)
Map 1: Product (3-0)
To echo my sentiments from my last article, “During the normal season, Profits and DCMC played each other on this map and DCMC was frankly rolled on this map by Profits. While I think it is likely that DCMC has improved somewhat on this map in the time since, I doubt it is enough to tilt the scales far enough in their favor to be able to win here.” While DCMC was able to beat BTM on this map, take that as a greater indicator of how inferior BTM was on the map more than as a mark of improvement on the part of DCMC. While it is rarely right to predict a straight 3-0 when the two best teams are playing each other, i struggle to see it going any other way. Despite having a team that has many better players on-paper, DCMC will have to overcome their inability to play the map correctly if they ultimately want to win any rounds on the map and will have to play some of the best KOTH they have played all season to actually win Product. The overwhelming confidence of Profits is borne out by them running back the same map against the same team for the 3rd time this season.
Map 2: Swiftwater (2-1)
This is DCMC’s pick, just like it was last time. Hopefully, unlike last time, DCMC will be able to grab that 2nd round rather than coming up just short of taking it like last time. On this aspect, though, I think that the odds of DCMC doing well enough and playing well enough are not looking a lot better after they got rolled last week by BTM on this map. For a team that can win individually but lose based on the objective, the problems that they have were not obviously solved when they, once again, won individually but lost the map. Against a team with better players, and thus probably a more marginal “better” performance, expect this to be rough for DCMC to win, again. It will depend on the sort of silly plays they can manage to wrangle, and importantly whether they have changed up their offense to deal with the sentry in tunnel on 2nd that Profits has become a fan of.
Map 3: Ashville (3-1)
While denied their ability to hard counter DCMC with two different maps in the same set this time around, Profits got close enough with getting to pick another KOTH map. Despite facing the best flank in the division, it is not clear to me whether or not DCMC will be able to overcome their own disjointed playstyle on this map, which often relies on the other team not understanding how to beat a forward hold rather than especially clean pushes or holds. While the impact of DZCreeper and Reese is greatest on this map, especially if they are on fire for the match, it is not clear if that is going to happen, especially with T.K. for Profits almost certainly denying most of the plays of jak and Bliztank, two of the most important playmakers for DCMC. Be on the watch for another insane performance by TheS4rr<3, much like their week 1 playoffs match, if he is not shut down or if cinder for DCMC is having an off day.
Player v. Player Class Comparison
Given that I have already done this exact Class Comparison I will abbreviate them a little bit here, noting what I think are the single most important things to look at and not delving as much into immaterial advantages.
sobigallmytoesarebigtoes < Reese (Small Advantage)
The two best Scouts in the division on the two best flanks in the division. Reese for DCMC is simply the better player with outstanding DM, solid positioning, and the ability to go absolutely nuts if given the space and support. sobigallmytoesarebigtoes is a deeply solid player who you expect to always do well, they are just not quite of the same caliber and will almost certainly do well, but probably just less so than Reese.
Voyager > Bliztank (Small Advantage)
With the slur-fueled departure of rev for Profits (where have I heard of this happening before?) Voyager is being rung. Voyager is one of the best soldiers to have come out of Challenger/Advanced in recent seasons and has both good DM and good bombs. I see him as being better at some things than Bliztank while being worse at almost nothing, therefore giving him the edge. Yet, the alien playstyle of Bliztank has the potential to ascend to Jupiter (where [redacted] get more stupider) and frag out if the other team lets him. Don’t count Bliztank out here, just expect for Voyager to be doing more, especially if his team is winning.
T.K. > Pyrrhus (Small Advantage)
T.K. is a savant at holding the W key. Pyrrhus is a savant at holding the other movement keys. It just so happens that, in a matchup of these two teams, the W key is simply the higher impact key and therefore T.K. will likely have the bigger impact.
TeatsMcGee < DZCreeper (Small Advantage)
DZCreeper must perform well for his team to win here, and he has the ability to be an incredibly high-impact player for his squad. Off of the impact factor alone, I would give DZCreeper the edge but I also believe that TeatsMcGee is just not quite as capable as DZCreeper at playing when both are taking the game as seriously as they can. That being said a TeatsMcGee who is activated is probably the best Demo in the division, so we will see whether TeatsMcGee is feeling more like Bikini Atoll or Three Mile Island this match.
Moist Master > Luigi (Small Advantage)
Moist Master is just the better player despite the fact that Luigi is criminally underrated by almost everyone (myself included). I doubt this difference is big enough to have an impact on any map other than Swiftwater where Moist Master is very good at the map and Luigi is not as good. While this only really affects a couple of points on the map, those points can be some of the most important in the match and therefore any advantage is notable. That being said, it really is just a small tilt in favor of Moist Mater.
reigh > Q (Medium Advantage)
reigh is still the best Medic in the division while Q is not. The difference in their quality if exemplified by the difference in their experience. Q has the ability to become as good as reigh but he is not there yet and thus reigh gives her team a substantial advantage.
NicKk < Micahlele(Small Advantage)
More KOTH maps make me give the edge to the better DM Engineer, Micahlele, for this match. Micahlele can hold W like no other Engineer in the division, and will be a big reason for his team managing to pull their heads out of their [redacted] for this match on Product and Ashville.
TheS4rr<3__ > __cinder (Small Advantage)
TheS4rr<3 simply pounds at all maps that have been picked in this match. cinder is no slouch but all 3 map picks might as well have been on TheS4rr<3’s birthday list. A very good sniper on maps he is very good at will always give his team an advantage, and it is no different here. That being said, if TheS4rr<3 has been playing too much Apex Legends expect him to risk taking an L here.
Shido > jak (Medium Advantage)
Shido is a beast mode player, jak is a lesser beast mode player. In terms of impact and ability, Shido is substantially superior. Expect that to be borne out, especially if T.K. plays a bit more passive this match and likely shutting down jak pretty hard.
Overall Prediction: 2-0 for Profits Product: 3-0 for Profits Swiftwater: 2-1 for Profits Ashville: 3-1 for Profits
Theoretical Best and Second-Best Roster
There is literally no change from the last article. However, I have decided to include the feature of putting what teams everyone is on so that they have better odds of being picked up next season if their team dies :D.
- Reese DCMC
- Bliztank DCMC
- T.K. Profits
- kjr BTM
- Chocc tuatards
- Micahlele DCMC
- reigh Profits
- MichaelPC1 GUT
- Shido Profits
- sobigallmytoesarebigtoes Profits
- wise GUT
- Pyrrhus DCMC
- DZCreeper DCMC
- Moist Master Profits
- Constantly Yeye
- sakura Yeye
- TheS4rr<3 Profts
- jak DCMC