Foobar (8-6) and DO DA DISHES (7-7) aren't that bad - so be careful. Both will put up a fight. I expect DO DA DISHES to take a few rounds and push you, while Foobar skims a couple off after going down big early.

NFCG are in decent shape in terms of making the playoffs despite the FFW. They are 9-5, and have 47 RF with a FFW coming. Even if they lose to trans-autistic railroad, they're on a 10-6 record with between 49-53 RF. That should do the trick - even if the seed is somewhat poor. I think they'll be dancing anyway come next week - so let's not worry about what did or didn't happen in that other match.

Toon Gang, on the other hand, will be in good shape thanks to the FFW. At 44 RF, they weren't THAT safe before the FFW considering that Playground Tactics should beat them. As long as they beat pre-game callers they're fine - but if two losses come from granary week you could see them sitting at 10-6 with only 46-50 RF. Not an ideal place to be. Toon Gang are safe provided they show up and don't absolutely hammered by Playground Tactics AND pre-game callers. I think they'll split the two to go 11-5.

Both teams are probably going to take care of business and make the postseason. So let's move on - there are other compelling matchups in which one or both teams involved are NOT safe.

Not Bad for Offclassing (8-6) vs. Point and Click (6-8)

Match Rating: 4/10. This is a do-or-die game for the heavily-reformed NBO squad. I do, however, feel that they'll take of business here. Ska and Paddie have IM experience, and should be able to maintain control against a developing Point and Click outfit. About two weeks ago, NBO were a sloppy mess that did not have any good linking play between combo side and flank side. It appears that since those scrims a few weeks back that they've come together quite nicely against mid-open teams when the rounds counted. There are ways you can attack this NBO side and take rounds - but I don't know if Point and Click has the DM to punish a few key mistakes that NBO likes to make. Point and Click does have tactical nous, however - and to call them a dumb low-open team would actually be a mistake as they play remarkably well together despite tremendous levels of inexperience. I think that there are a few tricks in the bag for Point and Click, and that they'll steal a couple of rounds here. This Point and Click team plays about one stage above their actual skill level when it comes to positioning and timing of pushes (especially on stock 5-cp maps). Unfortunately, I think that going for the full-on upset would be one street too far.

I hope that most of Point and Click can stay together. There is real promise on that team going forward, and I wonder if they see it...

There are players on NBO that Point and Click cannot account for - and that's their downfall here. They shouldn't take a loss here with too much of a frown, as they've gone out and competed admirably all season long. That's all you can reasonably ask for with so many new players.

Foobar (8-6) vs. Embercore Gaming (6-8)

Match Rating: 6/10. It's a great sign to see that Embercore are sticking it out - if I were a sponsor I'd be impressed considering how rare it is to see non-playoff open teams TRY to keep things together (although changes always happen). I think that their record is a BIT misleading. They have real talent at soldier right now (Cole and Screwball), paired with a sound mid-open Demo in Dakrah. Sometimes I feel that their soldiers try to do too much, and that causes issues in the flank which is often out-of-time with the combo-side pushes. They also tend to DM a little too much even though they've got some disturbingly good fraggers in their soldier pair. Foobar are the smarter team here, but I wonder how much good that will do if Cole and Screwball reach their potential and start wrecking at mid (which they can most certainly do against another mid-open squad in Foobar). The big question will be if Embercore can play with a cool head - as I think that they have some very nice matchups to take advantage of IF they can. That's a huge "if" for this team, though - and that's why they have eight losses (their talent is NOT the issue here). Furthermore, how will Foobar handle urgency considering how green they are around the ears?

Anything could happen in regards to the psychological state of either team in this late-season rubbermatch. I would NOT be surprised if one team is just "there" come Tuesday night and just pummels the the other - even though this looks like a 5-4 affair on paper.

Edit: I keep making stupid errors. I need to proofread.

Heading into the final week:

1. There are 29 teams that could mathematically win Open. Furthermore, all of these 29 teams can also earn promotion to IM for S14.

2. Only 6 of 16 playoff seeds have been officially sealed at 11-3 or better. That leaves us with 10 remaining places "up for grabs".

3. The four teams at 10-4 must win either one match or a bunch of rounds to ensure safety. All four should advance to the postseason - although by winning their matches they will be eliminating a few of the 9-5 teams in the race.

4. Making the playoffs if you're one of the 23 teams between 8-6 and 10-4 will have more to do with your draw in the schedule than your exact skill.

5. All of the 8-6 teams will need two wins + help in order to make it. The amount of help needed will vary between miniscule and enormous, depending on existing RF and H2H records.

6. About 60% or more of all Open matches will have playoff implications. I've never seen a season where so many games mean so much.

7. 23 teams are fighting for 10 spots - the "playoffs" for all intents and purposes begins NOW.

Tuesday's Primer (with importance factor between 1-10):

MATCH OF THE WEEK

Randy and Chums (9-5) vs. open is hard/RUSH (9-5)

Match rating: 9/10. Consider this: After starting 9-0 and having the #1 overall ranking, a loss here for what used to be RUSH will push them in what could wind up being a premature elimination game against Basics Octopus Emporium. Things are even more desperate for Randy and Chums, since they're going to face the 11-3 Playground Tactics in the final game of the season. Neither team is in any kind of form to speak of - which means this could turn into a desperate, scrappy affair. This is actually a great game to cast in my opinion as you're going to see playoff-level TF2 one week early. Both sides have buckets of experience relative to 80% of Open - so therefore I cannot give a "crunch time" edge either way. I'm going to say that Randy and Chums are a marginal favorite pre-match since I'm not exactly sure what lineup the former RUSH squad will decide to use. Randy and Chums, on the other hand, have found a standing six and SHOULD look more cohesive as result. This is hugely important on cp_granary in which team discipline is often more important than individual playmaking.

If RUSH were 100% focused into this game (and only they themselves can answer this), then I would take them in a second since I think they've got a small talent advantage. Unfortunately I'm not sold enough on either their focus (which is hard to gauge) or who they're starting (which isn't stable as it used to be - that IS verifiable) to overlook a disciplined kraka AND an invite-proven player at the controls (blackymonster on medic).

Players to watch: kraka, reimu

THREE GAMES YOU MIGHT WANT TO KEEP TRACK ON[/b]

The Crunchy Bunch (12-2) vs. gettin cozy (11-3)

Match Rating: 5/10. If I'm Bosh, I'd light a fire under my team's ass right about now. With 1-2 of the 10-4 teams being capable of reaching 12-4, the last thing I'd want is for my seeding to fall below 4 or 5 - a straightforward first-round game (and subsequent IM promotion). They were off-form and unfocused in their most recent loss, and it will be key for them to shake it off now and head into the playoffs taking two wins on granary. There is adequate talent to appear in an Open final - but the focus needs to key in now before any further complacency sets in.

There should be only one favorite in this match, but any match vs. gettin cozy is NOT a charity. The one thing that I like about getting cozy is that they're not resting on any sort of crutch - they'll be able to run a standard, balanced holding strategy against Bosh's outfit without having to stretch people out of formation to compensate for a clear disadvantage at any position. This is HUGE on 2-holds/yard-holds on granary.

Screwball and Cole combined very well this season in terms of a "soldier pair" - I'm curious to see what happens when they function as a combo.

9-7 can make it if hell freezes over. You'd need about 10-12 teams to bottle it late and finish 9-7 just so that you have the opportunity to survive.

After Sunday night, you're going to have a pack of 9-5 teams and 8-6 teams. You'll need the 8-6 teams to knock off the 9-5 teams AND for the 8-6 teams to beat each other up a little too.

I think if you win out you will still fall short. With that said, you won't miss by much since the final week is going to be a bloodbath in middle of the table.

From Friday until Sunday, there are a number of "elimination games", in which the loser is pretty much out. Here are the "bubble watch" games this weekend. Note: games between 9-4 or better teams have been left out for now as I feel that even the loser is in good shape heading into Week 9.

Friday's Matches:

Shiny (4-9) vs. Foobar (7-6)

Foobar cannot lose or they're finished.

Evil Villain is Lemons (7-5) vs. Drunk Girls (6-6)

Drunk Girls cannot lose or they're finished. Lemons aren't as desperate, however. If Lemons win I wouldn't bet against them to finish 11-5 and sneak in the back door.

Sunday's Matches:

Evil Villain is Lemons will FFW rep to win what will be either their 8th or 9th win this season. This is why that first game on Friday really isn't that desperate of a proposition. They're in the hunt heading into granary week regardless.

Drunk Girls (6-6) vs. DJINNOCIDE (8-5)

Once again, Drunk Girls can't lose this match. DJINNOCIDE could use a win themselves as it would allow them to drop a granary match and still be dancing at the very end. A loss from DJINNOCIDE would mean they'd have two "win or go home games" on granary.

Rent-a-Homies (8-5) vs. Astronerds (8-5)

This isn't a KO game so much as it is a "you really should win this to relieve pressure heading into granary week" game. Astronerds need it more considering who they're playing next week - beating Hanky Panky and Tonight's Entertainment on granary is a tall task.

DO DA DISHES (7-6) vs. Wu-Tang Financial (7-6)

Win or go home. At 8-6, the winner will need to sweep granary week against 2 more bubble teams in order to slip into the field. At 7-7, the loser is mathematically out and will finish with a decent mid-table record.

Lockdown (6-6) vs. NBO (7-6)

Win or go home. Lockdown will not only need this win, but will also need to win the 2nd leg of the DH in order to stay alive at 8-6. Give credit to Lockdown for climbing all the way back to even get to this point.

Lockdown (6-6) vs. EmberCore Gaming (6-7)

Embercore will finish mid-table, but could spoil the hopes of Lockdown this week with a badlands win here. Lockdown cannot lose this match or they're eliminated.

I didn't think we were out of it - at least not yet. We're at 7-6 now with 36 RF. If we were to win out, we'd be on 51 RF and a 10-6 record. That should do the trick, right?

I'm pretty sure that any team ranked #31 and up (Foobar 7-6) has a chance.

I would have waited to do this until Monday since there are a few 7-6 vs. 7-6 matches still on the docket. Once everyone finishes their 14th match I think the picture will clear up a bit.

Good-hearted guy that just needs to find a team that is serious about playing through the long haul. Has a legitimately good personality that is actually tolerable to deal with over 3+ months. Furthermore, he's also shown a general willingness to learn - and that's another good mark in his column.

http://i.imgur.com/TnCsLlH.jpg?1

Just took this picture 3 minutes ago

Does anyone not have a room share? The rooms are $87.20 a night which means that if I'm sleeping at this joint I'm splitting costs.

I honestly don't think that anyone else in Open is having quite as much fun as they are. invizible is a good pickup (I'm assuming that's your man after looking at your roster).

He used to work incredibly hard on his rollouts. I haven't seen or heard much from him in about a few months since his team died on him last season. However, I cannot say enough about his dedication to improving as his work ethic was wonderful when I was around him.

Nope we found our medic for at least the rest of this season.

Bumping. I've updated the thread to reflect recent changes made to the roster. We're starting to play better after hitting rock bottom. We will trial demos after the match tonight (if we're up for it) and on Monday/Tuesday.

We're now looking for a demoman.