With escape plan drawn, you take 35% more damage + no falloff. You also take the extra knockback, which can actually be used to your advantage with a bit of smart timing. The extra damage effectively gives you 26 HP when at 40 health and EP drawn. The only times that you'll die compared to when you'dve otherwise lived is when you're taking shotgun chip (which now does ~7 damage compared to 3) or when you get clipped by a rocket, which can do 24 damage minimum at maximum falloff + splash before crits, but will now do 60 minimum. So the nerf really only affects you if you are getting consistently clipped by explosives at long range, but these explosives would've put you at 10-20 health anyway, and you could argue that if you were clipped after losing 150 health and running away, you probably deserve to die.
It's not a very effective nerf, since rarely are you running around with enough health to tank a minimum damage splash, although it does make you a little weaker to scouts and shotguns, but the way the spread works out, I don't think it'll affect most situations where a scout is chasing you too severely.