TwiggyWho will win?
Remember the last trade war?
TwiggySide question, how much of ARM instruction set is legally protected? Can Huawei copy/rename the arm instructions, make their toolchain, and pretend to have their own cpu design?
The instruction set is not a problem. That's all ARM UK, Huawei already got a license for it and worst case they don't really care. If the US ban all imports by Huawei what are they going to do if Huawei continues to use chips with ARM CPUs made by HiSilicon (owned by Huawei, located in China) manufactured by TSMC in Taiwan, which the the US claims doesn't actually exist. How would they stop them?
Also keep in mind that is going to be mostly about bureaucracy. 2 out of ARMs 3 design teams are in Europe. So Cortex-A76 = bad, designed in Austin, but they can't stop it because HiSilicon is already manufacturing that. A77 or whatever the next one will be called is probably a Sophia (France) design again so Trump can't do jack shit. A55 and so on are all Cambridge so again ARM can do whatever they want.
They are complying now to not anger the orange and will slowly figure out what they're allowed to export, whether or not giving Huawei a manual written by someone in Texas is a threat to national security and if so have someone from Cambridge rewrite it.
There are some other chips that Huawei/HiSilicon do physically buy from US companies but nothing completely irreplacable. ARM is the least of their worries because they are not a US company and don't need to keep up continous supply of physical chips.
Android isn't ideal because their own OS isn't quite where they want it to be or they wouldn't switched already, but again not irreplacable.
Huawei can keep making smartphones no matter what Trump comes up with.
The US is 15% or something like that of global smartphones sales at this point and almost half of that is Apple (compared to <20% globally) so Huawei isn't terribly hurt by losing that market.
Not really, they still license ARM's designs. But they can keep using and tweaking what they've already got or get non-US designs from ARM.
The US is not the only western market and no other western market has banned Huawei yet. It's a setback in the US and only the US for now.
Also fuck RISC-V for various reasons.