With Week 2 came some predictable, and some less-than-predictable matches. The most movement on the power rankings this list will be happening at the low end of the division, where the bottom two teams have seemingly established themselves.
- Desperado Crash Mambo Combo
- Break the Meta (+1)
- My RGL Profits Have Declined (-1)
- Yeye (+3)
- Gang Unit Tactics (-1)
- @yo_grrt (+2)
- Seductive 9 (-2)
- tuatards (-1)
Yeye will be moving up substantially as their win over My RGL Profits Have Declined demonstrates that they are a force to be contended with, far more than the teams below them. Also on the rise is @yo_grrt whose victory over tuatards demonstrated that they might be able to take even more wins as the season progresses. Seductive 9 and tuatards will both fall to the bottom, the former due to instability and seemingly trying to die every week (alongside poor match performances) and the latter for having a slew of weak performances across the board. If S9 or another team does die, it will be interesting to see how well their replacement fares as the admin for the division, Arzt Hispanian, seems intent on ensuring that there won’t be a Bye Week in Challenger.
Week 2 post-mortem
The second week of matches brought us our first close matches of the season, a true blessing considering Week 1.
DCMC v. Break the Meta (4-0) - Logs
Another unfortunately predictable result, DCMC is on a real streak of dominance here. Not worth going into a lot of discussion given how one-sided it was except to note that BTM swapping Demoman norphel08 for fygg was seemingly not the difference-maker they needed and that Sniper Markers still did well despite his team getting rolled.
Standout players: RPC_33 and Bliztank for DCMC, Markers and Jinzo for BTM.
Gang Unit Tactics v. Seductive 9 (4-3) - Logs
A close match between two of the worse teams in the division, this match demonstrated what has been the weakness of S9 since preseason: a weak Sniper and Medic protection. With WiLLmaTiC and Jerrr for S9 dying 16 and 4 more times than their respective counterparts on GUT, with 10 picks on Jerr and 13 picks on WiLLmaTiC coming from the Flank alone, it was always going to be hard to win. While it is important to note that this was a close match, that was more a testimony to how weak both teams are more than anything else. Despite Demo XBS for GUT dropping almost 100 DPM more than opposing MiG-21bis, and their flank dropping 99 kills, GUT still only barely edged out a win here. When your most important classes are winning that hard, it just should not be that hard to win.
Standout players: Flare, wise, MichaelPC1 for GUT, WiLLmaTiC and sinister for S9.
My RGL Profits Have Declined v. Yeye (3-4) - Logs
Yeye really stepped up to bat this week, securing a victory over a team that seemed very strong, at least on paper. This was another incredibly close 4-3 win for Yeye and they deserve all the credit they can get for it. I mistakenly stated that Demo chase had been replaced by jetz for Yeye and I want to state that it was, in fact, chase who played this match, which I am sure they are happy about given the synergy they have developed with him and his outperformance of TeatsMcGee for Profits. Despite outstanding performances from Sniper TheS4rr<3 and Soldier SmAk for Profits, it seems that they just could not get it together enough to take the win here. However, it’s entirely worth noting that there were exceptional performances from Yeye players as well, with Soldier Toss being responsible for 9 of the opposing Medic’s deaths and Scout dotwet securing 10 Demo frags.
Standout players: Toss and dotwet for Yeye, and The S4rr<3 and SmAk for Profits.
tuatards v. @yo_grrt (4-2) - Logs
@yo_grrt played to impress this week, with not only an upset win (if you go by my rankings), but also one where their whole team played incredibly solid. While Sniper tua and Soldier Wubs for tuatards had some solid performances, the rest of their team really did not pick up the slack with every other class being outperformed by their counterparts. The most glaring example of this was Scout fishee for @yo_grrt who not only top-fragged with 40 kills but also got very important frags, with 20 of his kills being on the Demo, Medic and Heavy alone.
Standout players: tua and Wubs for tuatards, and fishee and snow for @yo_grrt.
Week 3 Match Predictions
DCMC v. Seductive 9 (2-0)
Anything but a quick defeat of S9 would be a surprise here, not really much else to say. The interesting question will be whether or not this will be the straw that breaks S9’s back. If anything happens for S9 this match, expect it to happen off of some incredible play from their pick classes of Sniper WiLLmaTiC and Spy sinister.
Players to watch: DZCreeper and cinder for DCMC, and WiLLmaTiC and sinister for S9.
Break the Meta v. tuatards (2-0)
Another match that should just not really be close. While Heavy can be a big game-changer on Vigil, and tuatards has been gifted with the best one in the division in Chocc, it will all be a question of whether or not they are able to capitalize on his plays against superior pick classes in Sniper Markers and Spy DoofedUpWeiner for BTM. Giving even more of an edge than the pick classes, however, are Demo fygg and Medic AC-130 for BTM, both of whom are substantially better than their counterparts of dt and rona for tuatards. While I am sure that these players could make me eat my words here, the Pick and Combo difference in BTM’s favor just seems insurmountable here.
Players to Watch: Markers, DoofedUpWeiner, fygg for BTM, and Chocc and tua for tuatards.
Yeye v @yo_grrt (2-0)
This match has a very strong chance of being way closer than this prediction, but I think that between the two strong Advanced move-ups, Yeye is the stronger one here. With players more than capable of contesting their respective classes on @yo_grrt, and with substantially more coordination, it seems like this should be a relatively simple match for Yeye. Expect solid performances from both combos here, and relatively even flank matchups. More than usual, the difference maker here will just be who plays better TF2, and Yeye has been showing just how well they are able to play it all season. If there is any chance for @yo_grrt to beat my prediction here, it will come off the back of excellent plays from their Combo or a dominant performance by Sniper eagle, which is certainly not impossible.
Players to watch: hmls, yeye, chase for Yeye, and eagle, Soap, Mikhail for @yo_grrt.
Gang Unit Tactics vs. My RGL Profits Have Declined (0-2)
__ Impostors__ (and the offspring) have generally been relatively competent at Vigil, but I still lack a lot of faith in the roster of GUT. On a map where Sniper generally has a hard trouble doing a lot of work, MichaelPC1 may struggle to put his team on his back. This will only mean more pressure is put onto Demo XBS and Heavy nurkz for GUT to outperform Moist Master and TeatsMcGee of Profits, both of whom are more than a match for the combo of GUT. I would not be surprised if GUT could pull a round win here, but I would be surprised if Profits managed to mess this up enough to lose to the messy GUT gameplay which so nearly lost last week to a substantially weaker team. If GUT does want to win, expect it to be off the back of solid performances by their pick classes or their flank, where their advantages are a little greater.
Players to watch: MichaelPC1, Flare, and wise for GUT, and TheS4rr<3, Moist Master and Shido for Profits.
Theoretical Best and Second-Best Roster
Some players are clean, some are not-so-clean. Who are the showered and filthy players this week?!?
- Scout: RPC_33 - Desperado Crash Mambo Combo [2x]
- Soldier: Bliztank - Desperado Crash Mambo Combo [2x]
- Pyro: TK - My RGL Profits Have Declined [2x]
- Demoman: DZCreeper - Desperado Crash Mambo Combo [3x]
- Heavy: Chocc - tuatards [2x]
- Engineer: Micahlele - Desperado Crash Mambo Combo [3x]
- Medic: reigh - My RGL Profits Have Declined [3x]
- Sniper: Markers - Break The Meta [2x]
- Spy: Shido - My RGL Profits Have Declined [2x]
- Scout: Flare - Gang Unit Tactics [New, formerly sobigallmytoesarebigtoes]
- Soldier: wise - Gang Unit Tactics [2x]
- Pyro: Pyrrhus - Desperado Crash Mambo Combo [2x]
- Demoman: fygg - Break The Meta [New, formerly jetz]
- Heavy: Moist Master - My RGL Profits Have Declined [3x]
- Engineer: Starfruit66 - Gang Unit Tactics [3x]
- Medic: sakura - Yeye [3x]
- Sniper: cinder - Desperado Crash Mambo Combo [3x]
- Spy: Witness - Gang Unit Tactics [New, formerly Jak]
The Second-Best Roster sees shake ups with Spy Witness moving in to replace a player with bad mental, Demo fygg moving in to replace a player who is not actually maining (oops) and Scout Flare moving in to replace a different Scout until I feel like I have actually found the Second-best Scout in the division.