W7 preds (matches are like 4-0 / 4-1 unless I pred otherwise)

Sidetalk > Balcony
Sidetalk > Jaguar

fgp > Perutech - Rounds might matter here for Perutech playoff hopes but I think fgp just stronger on paper. 4-0/4-1 for fgp.
fgp > Spicy

Chicken > Bucket
Chicken > Balcony

OW > Extine
OW > hero's journey - More playoff implications; hero's journey had a strong performance on process vs chicken. Don't think they can close it out but rounds would be nice for them. Probably 4-1 for Whales though.

triiiple == go raw! gl;hf
triiiple == pregame head gl;hf

spaghetti > hero's journey - More playoffs stuff; I think spaghetti is more dominant though. Prob 4-0/4-1
spaghetti > Perutech - Important match for Perutech; win here would be big. I think they already scrimmed though lol according to logs and got defeated pretty solidly, hopefully they can fix their mistakes and provide a good match. Prob 4-1 for spaghetti though.

go raw! > Extine

Sekt Mafia > pregame head
Sekt Mafia > mutiny

LFP > mutiny
LFP > bucket

Spicy < Jaguar - Spicy on a bit of a decline as of recent and the Jaguar team looks pretty good on koth. Like 4-2/4-3 in favor of Jaguar.

W6 preds: Most matches between playoff-predicted teams have finished so I'll prob be doing full week preds + shorter writeups for now (round preds are like 5-0 5-1 unless otherwise noted)

triiiple == extine gl;hf
triiiple == mutiny gl;hf

sidetalk > hero's journey
sidetalk > LFP

fgp > bucket
fgp > Jaguar

chicken > sekt mafia (5-2) - Pretty important match for sekt mafia's playoff dreams; rounds could be important here (and obviously a win would be huge). Hard to pred not for chicken though.
chicken > hero's journey

whales > jaguar
whales > go raw! (5-3) - Another important match; I've seen antoni work miracles on process though ...

spaghetti > go raw! - I have 0 idea what the spaghetti roster is anymore and go raw are solid, plus jason has like 200 ping for some reason now unless that's fixed. Process is a good sniper map though and deathtocats is very strong. Could see like a 5-3 either way.
spaghetti > extine

sekt mafia > bucket

LFP > balcony

spicy > head
spicy > balcony

perutech > mutiny
perutech > head

W5B preds: update broke everything edition

sidetalk > spicy - based on logs + round lengths sidetalk dominated sekt mafia and spicy got 4-0'd by chicken (but really if a match was played but there are no logs, did it ever really happen?)

fgp > sekt mafia - unless sekt mafia giga cleans up stuff I do believe this will be quite difficult, especially now with sniper x factor included

chicken > go raw! - ok now this is an interesting match; go raw! got 4-0'd by fgp although by the round lengths seems to be a bit closer than the score suggests. the frag/damage differential is very significant though. Still have to pred for chicken based on record and their strong via performance but as I said last week how go raw! do here really lets me gauge their strength much better.

obese whales > perutech - We have not played perutech and I'm not sure when we will (dear god exile please tell me team leader invite player) so I unfortunately have no data. Obese whales lost 2-4 to spaghetti which I did not expect, logs seems to indicate that whales soldiers struggled but it's also viaduct so idk take the stats with a grain of salt. Regardless whales still seem stronger on paper and as that's all I know I'm going with that.

Spaghetti > bucket - Incorrect pred last week for spaghetti but I'm going to cope and say that literally half their roster was different. Anyway I think this should be pretty dominant although I fucked up last week and simply should've believed in the samantha diff. Gulliblegoobular also kinda nice with it and S-tier alias and faith killed 9 meds which helps.

hero's > mutiny
Jaguar > 503
BB == triiiple ak gl;hf

Every team I believe in / compliment is cursed to lose so I apologize. Still think LFP > head tho

Score for W5a preds: 5/8 god I suck at this

W5a Preds:

sidetalk > sekt mafia - something something pred for sidetalk every week. Rex + k1ng have good dm which helps on koth, but the new soldier duo + sidetalk's proven roster makes me think this will probably be a 4-0 or 4-1.

fgp > go raw! - I would like to take this time to wish fgp's own taiko an early happy birthday from everybody on the spring rolls analyst desk (aka just me). Just for you I will pred in your teams favor, surely there was no way I would've done so otherwise ! I hope you have a great day, everybody on your team clearly supports you!

(go raw!'s first match vs. a top team, their performance here will really guide my perception of them in the following weeks, although koth is a bit weird. Scouty sniper on viaduct though + yate is also very good makes me think the scout diffening will happen, feel free to prove me wrong).

chicken > spicy - I tried to have a hot take for spicy last week and it backfired so I'm only on beta preds now, FUCK spicy (all is forgiven if you win this match though cause that would be extremely beast).

obese > spaghetti - is jas back yet? idk but having a sniper player on this map would certainly be nice. Gonna assume he's not and pred a strong obese > spaghetti as their snakewater performance was bit weak. They had a good performance vs sidetalk on bagel though so maybe they're a koth team? who knows.

triiiple == perutech - gl;hf

hero's > pregame head
LFP > Jaguar - think LFP are pretty solid actually
bucket < BB - actually kind of hard to pred honestly, samantha diff maybe? idk. edit: actually after thinking about it i'm going with BB but still not sure.
extine > xXx

W4B Preds

fgp > whales - Exciting match, not 100% sure what fgp roster is though. I think scouts are stronger on fgp if they have the duo I think they have which will make the difference here, although there are clearly some x factors in play...

My theory was that sacking into second seems more difficult cause it's easier to spot and spam something like lower or through saw unless you are an absolute psychopath and hit something through window. Think most 5cp mids have high skyboxes; not sure about last. But again i simply theorycraft feel free to tell me if it was owning in ur match.

sidetalk == triiiple ak - gl;hf

chicken > sweaty - spaghetti 1st half vs. fgp was uh ... yeah don't press tab.

go raw! > bucket - dominant vs perutech, better on paper etc.

spicy > perutech - Alright I've been making some incredibly soy predictions so far so my first slightly hot take is that spicy is fired up and really wants this win. If I get proven wrong I'm never having a hot take ever again

LFP > hero - Not very sure on this match but a good performance vs sekt mafia from LFP gives me a bit more confidence for them.

Jaguar > head
BB > xXx
sekt mafia > extine

I think the ban lengths make sense if you put it in the context of "this person is cheating but we need proof, what's the longest ban length that is also not completely insane for people who are just very dumb and forgetful", but if you eventually submitted it I think it's a different case than people who just not submit because they're cheating.

Granted still kinda dumb to wait so long though so an infraction is prob still warranted to make it not impossible to admin the div.

Week 4a Preds

fgp > spaghetti - fgp has a really good pickup in scouty and spaghetti has to play with a sub on flank scout (maybe even had to pick them up this weekend lol idk), plus fgp undefeated so.

sidetalk > obese whales - my strategy of simply predding for sidetalk every week has failed me, simply inconceivable. Anyway, I do think they're still stronger on paper and i think snakewater is not the best bazooka map (idk feel free to prove me wrong i'm just spitballing here).

triiiple == chicken - gl;hf

go raw! < perutech - Finally get to see go raw against a playoff contender. Perutech had a rough time last week but I imagine their soldier duo is more comfortable on this map. Have to pred for Perutech because it's very hard to gauge go raw!'s strength given their schedule but would not be surprised if this is close/raw win.

spicy > bucket - bones is released from rgl jail and is going to go nuts as a result (I have no idea about this match.)

LFP < sekt mafia - sekt mafia has to redo their soldier combo but I think they're still better on paper

Jaguar > BB - just seem better

xXx ?????? pregame head - i have no idea

W2b:

sidetalk > perutech - perutech doesn't look too good on this map, i will pred for sidetalk always anyway, etc.
fgp < chicken - no throne (who is the best flank scout do not fall for brody trolling me) but kovacs is goated
spaghetti > jaguar - oops this match already happened
triiiple = whales gl;hf
go raw > BB
hero's journey < sekt mafia
spicy > xXx
bucket > head - heal samantha will probably be enough
LFP > burnsiders if rainoflight isn't playing i think

there are also a lot of teams i have not scrimmed and don't personally know well so if people have better info for predictions feel free to chime in !!

Ah shie... guess i'll do a logs.tf analysis of the most interesting match that happened (imo)

Chickenheads vs. Perutech (for the record would've predicted chickenheads to win but perhaps not as hard as they did)

• No stats really standout except for a good flank scout performance by kovacs vs. sagejay, soldiers seem superficially even but uh....

https://i.imgur.com/nRf6Lqz.png

yeah you don't want your midfights to look like that.

Remaining matches:

sidetalk > fgp - Based on logs raven is now in over scouty. I'm probably predicting sidetalk > any team for the rest of the season though regardless, and maybe their new pickup will actually be better overall for them only time will tell.

triiiple == spaghetti - gl;hf

whales > sekt mafia - Actually a really interesting match. I have a feeling that chell team wants it more but whales has multiple x factors (beggars bazooka funny, players with experience). Last week in our match vs. sekt mafia the first half was a bit of a roll on bagel but they didn't let it get to them and brought back new force in the second half; I hope to see something similar in case they happen to go down rounds early. Would not be surprised for a close match either way or a roll by whales, may watch this on stream if I'm truly sad and don't have a friday night.

Go raw > LFP - I think go raw has that classic go 0-2 early vs. top team contenders then coast for a bit. Next week matches look more interesting for them.

W2B

12 years > spaghetti - scrimmed both we got shitrolled by 12 years !
fgp > LFP
PERUTECH > hero's journey
triiiple = sekt mafia gl;hf
go raw! > spicy
whales > bombing balcony
bucket < jaguar played both actually not really sure though lol
head ??? extine

most interesting matches are prob triiiple vs sekt mafia (extremely unbiased) and 12 years vs. spaghetti

Hi brody is not doing match predictions this season so I will, feel free to get mad and dm me at springrolls#9091 if you have secret juicy information

W2A
12 years > Chickenheads - I think throne ahlicks probably best scout duo in the div but scouty misky prob #2. Soldiers slightly stronger on 12 years imo. XBS vs Maeko is interesting. Think it'll be a close match unless there's omega soldier/demo diff.
spaghetti > pugga's - controversially i do not think spaghetti will lose to a dead team
fgp > hero's journey - gonna be honest dont know anybody on hero's journey (no beef intended !) so gotta pred the team i lost to for my ego
PERUTECH > looking for padre - PERUTECH is good and they were good at this map I think when i played with them
triiiple = bucket - GL;HF
Obese Whales > Pregame Head - Unlucky matchup honestly, experience alone on obese whales will probably allow them a swift victory
Jaguar < Chell - I predict chell team will roll, feel free to prove me wrong though
Spicy > tacticalnukers - yeah im flipping a coin here but i think spicy has people who placed in IM so i'm going with them
go raw! > xXx - I think go raw sweeps their matches this week
bombing balcony > extine - I have no idea

I have nothing to offer towards the argument about what words should be allowed. To me though it's really questionable that rgl does not give any warnings on this topic and just heads straight to a 2 week ban on somebody with no prior infractions. Imagine a new player using words that they use IRL everyday where nobody bats an eye and then they get a sudden 2 weeks ban for it lol when it's not directed at anybody.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvGbGDuHZaI&t=53s

There's a plugin for it, it's being used next season in rgl.

iirc you can still detonate your own flare that is reflected, unless this was changed recently

Reflect detonator right before they det can do up to 170, you can see it in the vid using frame advance.