GentlemanJon
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Signed Up March 1, 2014
Last Posted January 17, 2018 at 10:43 AM
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#17 Unlock voting project in Projects

OK fellow nerds, I have been crunching data. Before getting into unlock details I wanted to look at some general analysis, the total voting users is around 130 which is reasonable considering the competitive population, and voting volumes on each unlock varies but will be reflected by looking at confidence scores based on the deviation of scores and the number of them to within 95% confidence.

Looking at how scores across all unlocks correlate we can draw some interesting conclusions about what makes a good unlock. This table shows the correlation level between the different question scores, "StockBalScore" refers to whether an item is a direct upgrade on stock. Although I look at scout in detail below this table is for all classes

https://i.imgur.com/4rHy2Ba.png

The deeper red shows that something is more strongly correlated. We can see that whether an item adds something to the game is the strongest association with whether an item should be allowed or not. Fun comes next, then whether it requires skill to use well or not. Being overpowered or being a direct upgrade on stock are negatively associated although the relationship is weak. Even so we can see that simply being powerful, being a direct ugprade over stock or even requiring a lot of skill to use aren't the major considerations whether something should be allowed. Essentially "balance" isn't that big a deal as long as an item fulfils other criteria.

Scout
Looking first at scout unlocks let's look at voting activity
https://i.imgur.com/xB5Dkem.png

The FaN has inflated figures because it was on the summary page. Other items attracted more votes on their own merit, the secondaries attracted the most interest, the Shotstop, Winget and Pocket Pistol all attracting over 40 votes. You can cross reference this against the confidence ranges below to see which ones might be broad because of low votes, and which because of voting variation.

Moving onto the "Should this item be allowed" votes
https://i.imgur.com/OZko8n5.png

What we're looking at here are confidence ranges. What this means is that there's inherently some uncertainty about what the votes mean, so taking into account the deviation of votes and whether the number is low or high we show the quantifiable variation in sentiment. The further right the bar is the more people want to allow it.

Also added to the graph are 3 vertical blue dashed bars at 2, 3 and 4. These represent possible places you might draw thresholds if you were creating a whitelist based on these possibilities. So 4 or above might be a very restricted whitelist. Where a range straddles a line then you have to make a judgement about how much lies above or below the threshold.

The unlocks fall into the following groups:
Always allow: Boston Basher, Winger, Shortstop
Medium restrictions: Back Scatter, Son-on-a-stick, Fan O'War, Force-A-Nature, Baby Face's Blaster, Candy Cane
Low restrictions: Atomizer
Always ban: Wrap Assassin, Flying Guillotine, Sandman, Soda Popper, Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol, Bonk! Atomic Punch, Crit-a-Cola, Mad Milk

Boston Basher is the only unlock where every vote was the same: allow it.

The following are the scores for other elements of the scout unlock voting. These also have confidence considerations but the graphs to show them would take up a massive amount of space. This is colour coded red for higher scores, more fun, more OP, adds more to the game, takes more skill to use, and upgrades directly over stock.

https://i.imgur.com/Fy0Imp0.png

I'll summarise some of the other classes when time allows

posted 2 days ago
#16 Eleague Boston Major in CSGO General Discussion
SassyTheSasquatchJust a couple days away now, what are your thoughts on who you thinks going to win?

Simulated tournament results
http://csgo.insight.gg/articles/predicting-the-eleague-major-boston-2018-a-1-million-iteration-monte-carlo-simulation/

posted 1 week ago
#271 December Global Whitelist Changes in TF2 General Discussion
Consolefwiw...

You can also use confidence intervals to calculate tighter or looser whitelist sets, I'll probably post at least summaries of that data at some point.

posted 1 week ago
#245 December Global Whitelist Changes in TF2 General Discussion
TwiiKuu...it will give VALVe actual knowledge to sift through.

If everyone just went here https://www.lootvote.com/game/all/tf2/comp-weapons and voted I'd be able to get the confidence scores down far enough to give Valve a ton of completely objective empirical feedback, although "not something people care enough about to vote" is also information of a sort.

posted 1 week ago
#13 TF2 balance discussion in The Dumpster

Go here https://www.lootvote.com/game/all/tf2/comp-weapons and vote on the unlocks

posted 1 week ago
#241 December Global Whitelist Changes in TF2 General Discussion
SnackIf TF2 means enjoying yourself then I would suggest boycotting any leagues running whitelists/rulesets you find unfun. All it takes to make a small league between yourselves is a challonge account and a google spreadsheet.

Global whitelist

posted 2 weeks ago
#16 Unlock voting project in Projects

So far this is what the allow/ban voting looks like, it is a big image

https://i.imgur.com/esSB1Wf.png

The stuff right at the top with no bar is stuff I am sure people want in the game on the evidence. The stuff at the bottom is stuff I am currently sure nobody wants in the game on the evidence. Everything else is a range. 3 is the middle point, if more of the bar is above that point then there is more support for allowing it than banning it, if more is below that point then there is support for banning it rather than allowing it.

The wider the bar the less sure I am of how much people want it because there are very few votes or the votes are highly varied and don't form a coherent pattern. The widest are a combination of the two. More votes will help narrow these things down, but I can understand nobody giving a shit about the Neon Annihilator.

Sun on a stick getting big support is the obvious take away here

posted 2 weeks ago
#225 December Global Whitelist Changes in TF2 General Discussion

So who wants ESEA to give EU another shot?

posted 2 weeks ago
#15 Unlock voting project in Projects
PuoskariNOT THE AWP I CAN'T HIT ANYTHING WITHOUT THE SOUND

Don't worry #savetheAWP is working. Currently the 12th most supported unlock

posted 2 weeks ago
#13 Unlock voting project in Projects
BumFreezeno i mean the overall rating that gets displayed on the items page, is it just an average of all the values of the questions?

Oh right, the category has a primary question - in this case should an unlock be banned - and the that score is used for the summary

posted 2 weeks ago
#10 Unlock voting project in Projects
BumFreezehow is a weapons overall "value" calculated? confuses me because some categories you would rather be at 1 than 5 eg. rather have them very underpowered than very overpowered

The left most option is the highest score, the right most is the lowest. Usually 5 to 1

posted 2 weeks ago
#7 Unlock voting project in Projects
unskilledi feel like there should be a way to sort the weapons by rating (either 5 to 1 or 1 to 5)

This is a good idea, might be a bit fiddly though, I'll look into it

posted 2 weeks ago
#3 Unlock voting project in Projects
DwapkingThe second question "Is this unlock fun." confuses me.

Fun for the player using it, playing against it or both?

Otherwise great initiative!

I think we're looking for an overall impression, does the fun of using it outweigh the frustration of being killed by it, being called names for using it, any deep inner shame you experience for equipping it, that kind of thing.

posted 2 weeks ago
#190 December Global Whitelist Changes in TF2 General Discussion
ScrambledMR_SLINhidden MMR.This is something I really want and haven't seen any evidence of, either from valve or in game.

It's really well hidden

posted 2 weeks ago
#1 Unlock voting project in Projects

I worked on this voting platform project a while ago with someone else and it pretty much just crashed and burned in it's original form so I've re-purposed it to allow for TF2 unlock voting.

https://www.lootvote.com/

Given that we've had some whitelist changes this seems like a good time. There's no requirement to vote on every unlock or even answer all the questions. You can even write nerd essays on the subject if you so desire.

If anyone wants to vote on anything else, maps say, then let me know here and I might be able to do something for those too.

Edit: direct link to full item list
https://www.lootvote.com/game/all/tf2/comp-weapons

posted 2 weeks ago
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