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International Ranking System
posted in Projects
1
#1
0 Frags +

I'm curating a stats-based ranking system that incorporates top-level ETF2L, ESEA, OzFortress, and AsiaFortress players and ranks them all in a single international list. It currently lists over 400 players and 27 teams. It's far from 100% accurate of course but I feel on the whole it works quite well. So far its claims to fame include correctly predicting the finishing order of i58 and ESA Rewind. The full table can be viewed via Dropbox here. I've been tinkering with it for ages and now feel it's ready to share.

I've also started a blog called TF2 Metrics where I plan on posting commentary and analysis about these rankings regularly while keeping the tables updated. The first post explains exactly how the system works.

Feel free to laugh at some of the more controversial conclusions this system reaches, but hopefully there's enough reasonableness here to at least be of interest to some of you. Cheers!

I'm curating a stats-based ranking system that incorporates top-level ETF2L, ESEA, OzFortress, and AsiaFortress players and ranks them all in a single international list. It currently lists over 400 players and 27 teams. It's far from 100% accurate of course but I feel on the whole it works quite well. So far its claims to fame include correctly predicting the finishing order of i58 and ESA Rewind. The full table can be viewed via Dropbox [b][url=https://www.dropbox.com/s/s4pnkrrvgjvw7pz/TF2Rankings.pdf?dl=0]here.[/url][/b] I've been tinkering with it for ages and now feel it's ready to share.

I've also started [b][url=https://tf2metrics.wordpress.com/]a blog called TF2 Metrics[/url][/b] where I plan on posting commentary and analysis about these rankings regularly while keeping the tables updated. The first post explains exactly how the system works.

Feel free to laugh at some of the more controversial conclusions this system reaches, but hopefully there's enough reasonableness here to at least be of interest to some of you. Cheers!
2
#2
6 Frags +

How does this well does this compare to the ELO by Jon?

How does this well does this compare to the ELO by Jon?
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#3
1 Frags +

I feel like this is very biased toward current players. Like for an all-time list it's strange tbat only recent players are at the top. I would have expected to see more of the old-school players like clockwork, among others, near the top. But for current players it looks pretty good. I'm guessing this is influenced by total wins, which would explain the somewhat odd ranking. Im on my phone rn, so if I missed something that's probably why.

I feel like this is very biased toward current players. Like for an all-time list it's strange tbat only recent players are at the top. I would have expected to see more of the old-school players like clockwork, among others, near the top. But for current players it looks pretty good. I'm guessing this is influenced by total wins, which would explain the somewhat odd ranking. Im on my phone rn, so if I missed something that's probably why.
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#4
20 Frags +

http://i.imgur.com/7xn5h6x.png

http://i.imgur.com/MorMJkA.png

http://i.imgur.com/SFm6cFM.png

http://i.imgur.com/ymiTuwV.png

http://emojipedia-us.s3.amazonaws.com/cache/80/c3/80c3d87224a20373f0b73f27d6f3ce04.png

Show Content
Saam has 25 entries and was gilded 4 times, also written as 4/25

https://static-cdn.jtvnw.net/emoticons/v1/354/2.0

in all seriousness though im not sure i understand the logic behind the gilding thing, shouldn't it matter more if your team wins than if you get better looking stats than your counterpart on the other team?
like for example freestate plays somewhat of a conservative flank scout and doesn't get as good looking stats as the combo scout (be it arekk or banny) but that's not to say that his playstyle is not conducive to them winning, he just doesn't take stupid risks and run in and chase kills/feed all the time
[img]http://i.imgur.com/7xn5h6x.png[/img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/MorMJkA.png[/img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/SFm6cFM.png[/img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/ymiTuwV.png[/img]
[img]http://emojipedia-us.s3.amazonaws.com/cache/80/c3/80c3d87224a20373f0b73f27d6f3ce04.png[/img]
[spoiler][quote]Saam has 25 entries and was gilded 4 times, also written as 4/25[/quote]
[img]https://static-cdn.jtvnw.net/emoticons/v1/354/2.0[/img]
in all seriousness though im not sure i understand the logic behind the gilding thing, shouldn't it matter more if your team wins than if you get better looking stats than your counterpart on the other team?
like for example freestate plays somewhat of a conservative flank scout and doesn't get as good looking stats as the combo scout (be it arekk or banny) but that's not to say that his playstyle is not conducive to them winning, he just doesn't take stupid risks and run in and chase kills/feed all the time[/spoiler]
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#5
9 Frags +
AlexandrosI feel like this is very biased toward current players.

You're absolutely right, the purpose of the 300-match window is to keep the rankings current. This is to help with accuracy for the current teams and to account for rust should an old player make a comeback. It also means that today's really good players aren't held back by poor performances they may have had perhaps a year ago.

[quote=Alexandros]I feel like this is very biased toward current players.[/quote]

You're absolutely right, the purpose of the 300-match window is to keep the rankings current. This is to help with accuracy for the current teams and to account for rust should an old player make a comeback. It also means that today's really good players aren't held back by poor performances they may have had perhaps a year ago.
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#6
15 Frags +

im assuming that the numbers in the player list next to the team name is the order of whos the best on the team.

yights the 5th best player on our team LOL

im assuming that the numbers in the player list next to the team name is the order of whos the best on the team.

yights the 5th best player on our team LOL
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#7
5 Frags +
bearodactylhttp://i.imgur.com/7xn5h6x.png
http://i.imgur.com/MorMJkA.png
http://i.imgur.com/SFm6cFM.png
http://i.imgur.com/ymiTuwV.png
http://emojipedia-us.s3.amazonaws.com/cache/80/c3/80c3d87224a20373f0b73f27d6f3ce04.png

And that's a prime example of this system being clearly wrong. This system rather undervalues you and Jarrett in my view, and that's part of the reason why MP4 is ahead. Dingo's run with EVL last season also boosts him to perhaps a debatable level. Usually with time these errors correct themselves, so we'll see if this has changed come season's end.

[quote=bearodactyl][img]http://i.imgur.com/7xn5h6x.png[/img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/MorMJkA.png[/img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/SFm6cFM.png[/img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/ymiTuwV.png[/img]
[img]http://emojipedia-us.s3.amazonaws.com/cache/80/c3/80c3d87224a20373f0b73f27d6f3ce04.png[/img][/quote]

And that's a prime example of this system being clearly wrong. This system rather undervalues you and Jarrett in my view, and that's part of the reason why MP4 is ahead. Dingo's run with EVL last season also boosts him to perhaps a debatable level. Usually with time these errors correct themselves, so we'll see if this has changed come season's end.
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#8
-24 Frags +

this is shit

this is shit
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#9
-2 Frags +
1StirlingAnd that's a prime example of this system being clearly wrong. This system rather undervalues you and Jarrett in my view, and that's part of the reason why MP4 is ahead. Dingo's run with EVL last season also boosts him to perhaps a debatable level. Usually with time these errors correct themselves, so we'll see if this has changed come season's end.

who cares about the stats if team a beats team b twice and has a better record should they not be higher on the list?
like ok cool maybe x player got kritzd and then y player baited super hard so their team got better stats, but it's entirely possible that their team lost even though as a whole they got more damage and/or kills than their opponents

[quote=1Stirling]And that's a prime example of this system being clearly wrong. This system rather undervalues you and Jarrett in my view, and that's part of the reason why MP4 is ahead. Dingo's run with EVL last season also boosts him to perhaps a debatable level. Usually with time these errors correct themselves, so we'll see if this has changed come season's end.[/quote]
who cares about the stats if team a beats team b twice and has a better record should they not be higher on the list?
like ok cool maybe x player got kritzd and then y player baited super hard so their team got better stats, but it's entirely possible that their team lost even though as a whole they got more damage and/or kills than their opponents
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#10
14 Frags +

how on earth are you able to compare two teams who play in different leagues when you can count on one hand the number of times matches between teams in those leagues have occurred

it makes no sense to put etf2l high teams in with esea IM teams when there's no results linking them

how on earth are you able to compare two teams who play in different leagues when you can count on one hand the number of times matches between teams in those leagues have occurred

it makes no sense to put etf2l high teams in with esea IM teams when there's no results linking them
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#11
13 Frags +

Asia ranks are REALLY inaccurate

Asia ranks are REALLY inaccurate
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#12
20 Frags +

i feel like im looking at a list that ranks screwball higher than marmaduke and i dont know how to describe my emotions

i feel like im looking at a list that ranks screwball higher than marmaduke and i dont know how to describe my emotions
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#13
6 Frags +
bearodactylwho cares about the stats if team a beats team b twice and has a better record should they not be higher on the list?
like ok cool maybe x player got kritzd and then y player baited super hard so their team got better stats, but it's entirely possible that their team lost even though as a whole they got more damage and/or kills than their opponents

This is completely true and a very valid criticism. In the end, this is just another metric by which teams can be ranked, and I'll be the first to admit it's miles away from being totally authoritative, and you're right to say that a victorious team with modest stats is better than a losing one with flashy stats. There's a great deal to disagree with in the rankings as they currently are. I have a great deal of reservation about its conclusion that Se7en are ahead of Froyo. That conclusion came about because Se7en haven't had a tough playmate this season unlike Froyo have, meaning they've been free to stomp around getting gilded left right and centre.

In the end this is really nothing more than an experiment, to see how well this particular interpretation of statistics matches up with reality. Sometimes it's right, and indeed often it's not right. This particular series of equations thinks that Six Apes is inferior to an Asian team called P00tis is Kill, but I don't think anyone would consider that to be a reasonable statement to make without evidence. It thinks Lemmings are behind Nunya, even though it was the former came within reach of playoffs. This one can be explained because Cold Heart and Zesty never got gilded this season, which I think many would agree is rather unfair, especially for Zesty.

There's a long list of inaccuracies beyond this, of course.

gemmhow on earth are you able to compare two teams who play in different leagues when you can count on one hand the number of times matches between teams in those leagues have occurred

it makes no sense to put etf2l high teams in with esea IM teams when there's no results linking them

They're complete guesses, that's the fairest way of putting it. It generally puts teams with similar-ish records within their own region near eachother. For example it thinks Lowpander and Nature Walk would produce a good match if they got to play eachother, that's all it boils down to really.

[quote=bearodactyl]
who cares about the stats if team a beats team b twice and has a better record should they not be higher on the list?
like ok cool maybe x player got kritzd and then y player baited super hard so their team got better stats, but it's entirely possible that their team lost even though as a whole they got more damage and/or kills than their opponents[/quote]

This is completely true and a very valid criticism. In the end, this is just another metric by which teams can be ranked, and I'll be the first to admit it's miles away from being totally authoritative, and you're right to say that a victorious team with modest stats is better than a losing one with flashy stats. There's a great deal to disagree with in the rankings as they currently are. I have a great deal of reservation about its conclusion that Se7en are ahead of Froyo. That conclusion came about because Se7en haven't had a tough playmate this season unlike Froyo have, meaning they've been free to stomp around getting gilded left right and centre.

In the end this is really nothing more than an experiment, to see how well this particular interpretation of statistics matches up with reality. Sometimes it's right, and indeed often it's not right. This particular series of equations thinks that Six Apes is inferior to an Asian team called P00tis is Kill, but I don't think anyone would consider that to be a reasonable statement to make without evidence. It thinks Lemmings are behind Nunya, even though it was the former came within reach of playoffs. This one can be explained because Cold Heart and Zesty never got gilded this season, which I think many would agree is rather unfair, especially for Zesty.

There's a long list of inaccuracies beyond this, of course.

[quote=gemm]how on earth are you able to compare two teams who play in different leagues when you can count on one hand the number of times matches between teams in those leagues have occurred

it makes no sense to put etf2l high teams in with esea IM teams when there's no results linking them[/quote]

They're complete guesses, that's the fairest way of putting it. It generally puts teams with similar-ish records within their own region near eachother. For example it thinks Lowpander and Nature Walk would produce a good match if they got to play eachother, that's all it boils down to really.
14
#14
-1 Frags +

screwb should not even be on this list or atleast shouldn't be fucking 49th place

delpo should be higher

screwb should not even be on this list or atleast shouldn't be fucking 49th place

delpo should be higher
15
#15
3 Frags +

in no world should delpo be rank 262 LOL

actually though there are players who stopped playing this game who are ranked higher than current day players. also here's a example, campy being above safrix (reguardless of both of them being fantastic players) safrix has better results than campy does stuff like that come into play because I feel like stuff like this is just highly untrue.

in no world should delpo be rank 262 LOL

actually though there are players who stopped playing this game who are ranked higher than current day players. also here's a example, campy being above safrix (reguardless of both of them being fantastic players) safrix has better results than campy does stuff like that come into play because I feel like stuff like this is just highly untrue.
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#16
5 Frags +
sandblastin no world should delpo be rank 262 LOL

This one's down to the limited scope of the rankings. When he played in ESEA-I with EVL a couple of seasons ago he hovered around the 40s.

[quote=sandblast]in no world should delpo be rank 262 LOL[/quote]

This one's down to the limited scope of the rankings. When he played in ESEA-I with EVL a couple of seasons ago he hovered around the 40s.
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#17
32 Frags +

AU team ranked 4th so it must be working

AU team ranked 4th so it must be working
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#18
20 Frags +

Everyone seems to be posting about how some player that they know is ranked incorrectly compared to other players.. its like you forget that its a system of statistical analysis that obviously has flaws and uses a very unique and rather interesting metric in 'gilding' - I think this is very cool and a good proportion of the rankings seem to be pretty accurate to me.
Nice work my man!

edit: I think it also showcases how players with playstyles that tend to produce good stats are ranked highly and how other players that have a lot more impact between the lines (stark wouldn't always get crazy stats but he was the best playmaker of all time and SO many of his frags have been very impactful - yet he peaked at 14th place) are not ranked as highly.

Everyone seems to be posting about how some player that they know is ranked incorrectly compared to other players.. its like you forget that its a system of statistical analysis that obviously has flaws and uses a very unique and rather interesting metric in 'gilding' - I think this is very cool and a good proportion of the rankings seem to be pretty accurate to me.
Nice work my man!

edit: I think it also showcases how players with playstyles that tend to produce good stats are ranked highly and how other players that have a lot more impact between the lines (stark wouldn't always get crazy stats but he was the best playmaker of all time and SO many of his frags have been very impactful - yet he peaked at 14th place) are not ranked as highly.
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#19
22 Frags +

Idk how you guys click on this thing, see that it's entirely based on statistical analysis and then post "WELL SEE THIS CAN'T BE RIGHT BECAUSE THIS PLAYER IS BETTER THAN THIS PLAYER DESPITE STATISTICS"

tftv kills me dawg. Nice site the idea is dope.

ur the tf2 tafo.

edit: damn how nuze gonna ninja me like that

Idk how you guys click on this thing, see that it's entirely based on statistical analysis and then post "WELL SEE THIS CAN'T BE RIGHT BECAUSE THIS PLAYER IS BETTER THAN THIS PLAYER DESPITE STATISTICS"

tftv kills me dawg. Nice site the idea is dope.

ur the tf2 tafo.

edit: damn how nuze gonna ninja me like that
20
#20
11 Frags +
knuck

What a ninja rofl, you said pretty much EXACTLY the same thing as me

[quote=knuck][/quote]
What a ninja rofl, you said pretty much EXACTLY the same thing as me
21
#21
2 Frags +
nuzeEveryone seems to be posting about how some player that they know is ranked incorrectly compared to other players.. its like you forget that its a system of statistical analysis that obviously has flaws and uses a very unique and rather interesting metric in 'gilding' - I think this is very cool and a good proportion of the rankings seem to be pretty accurate to me.
Nice work my man!

You were always my favourite, Nuze <3

The criticism is completely justified, though. There are clear weaknesses. Heck, even the concept of a ranking system for TF2 players at all has flaws. With Drackk and Blaze, for example, is one really better than the other at all? Or are they just different?

I think I should have badged this as an attempt at a ranking system rather than a full-blooded proper ranking system.

I'll jump on the blog tomorrow and talk properly about the motivation behind why this system works the way it does, because there are specific purposes there. Chief among these is that I wanted a system that allowed players to stand out from among their team mates. If it was purely team results based, Muuki and Uubers would be level. This way, though, Uubers has a means to excel within the team itself. In the match that just finished, he was the only one that successfully prevented his counterpart on nR from getting gilded.

[quote=nuze]Everyone seems to be posting about how some player that they know is ranked incorrectly compared to other players.. its like you forget that its a system of statistical analysis that obviously has flaws and uses a very unique and rather interesting metric in 'gilding' - I think this is very cool and a good proportion of the rankings seem to be pretty accurate to me.
Nice work my man![/quote]

You were always my favourite, Nuze <3

The criticism is completely justified, though. There are clear weaknesses. Heck, even the concept of a ranking system for TF2 players at all has flaws. With Drackk and Blaze, for example, is one really [i]better[/i] than the other at all? Or are they just different?

I think I should have badged this as an [i]attempt at[/i] a ranking system rather than a full-blooded proper ranking system.

I'll jump on the blog tomorrow and talk properly about the motivation behind why this system works the way it does, because there are specific purposes there. Chief among these is that I wanted a system that allowed players to stand out from among their team mates. If it was purely team results based, Muuki and Uubers would be level. This way, though, Uubers has a means to excel within the team itself. In the match that just finished, he was the only one that successfully prevented his counterpart on nR from getting gilded.
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#22
1 Frags +

5th best team in the world, I think there're some flaws here :o)

But overall i find it pretty cool, great work man. Give people some stuff to talk and argue about

5th best team in the world, I think there're some flaws here :o)

But overall i find it pretty cool, great work man. Give people some stuff to talk and argue about
23
#23
1 Frags +
Ombrack5th best team in the world, I think there're some flaws here :o)

its a sign.. drop the sponsor and go back to the top5 we all know and love..

[quote=Ombrack]5th best team in the world, I think there're some flaws here :o)[/quote]
its a sign.. drop the sponsor and go back to the top5 we all know and love..
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#24
9 Frags +

yesss I'm better than damneasy and chris

yesss I'm better than damneasy and chris
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#25
10 Frags +

elmo you suk lul

elmo you suk lul
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#26
10 Frags +

fuck i have to start tryharding in every official now

only then can i surpass jiho

fuck i have to start tryharding in every official now

only then can i surpass jiho
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#27
10 Frags +

took years for me to achieve higher rank than termo

took years for me to achieve higher rank than termo
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#28
0 Frags +

At Least I'm Above TurboTabs .-.

At Least I'm Above TurboTabs .-.
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#29
1 Frags +

Nice work with the playoff articles !

Nice work with the playoff articles !
30
#30
1 Frags +
muppetNice work with the playoff articles !

Thanks, dude! ESEA one is coming tonight.

[quote=muppet]Nice work with the playoff articles ![/quote]

Thanks, dude! ESEA one is coming tonight.
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